Quark writes about how the mainstream press is becoming increasingly hysterical in its promotion of growth lobby propaganda, particularly since the Australian Federal election in August 2010.
This article was originally placed as a comment to Tim Murray's article, "Four Stages in Finding a Mechanism for Rapid Population Decline,"
Quark writes about how the mainstream press is becoming increasingly hysterical in its promotion of growth lobby propaganda, particularly since the Australian Federal election in August 2010.
Since the Australian Federal election in August it seems any talk in the public realm of population sanity in Australia has been drowned out by articles in the mainstream press e.g The Australian, The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, embracing a large population, rubbishing a "sustainable population" and lecturing on how Australia's population will grow anyway no matter what the federal government does.
Just as there is a difference between a tree right next to my back door growing to 4 metres with a slender trunk and it growing to 50 metres with girth half the width of my house, the rate of population growth over which governments certainly do have control makes a difference to where we are in 2050. One would think 2050 by the way is the year that time will end given the number of references to it in demographic predictions and projections. In addition, federal government politicians have all received a "Red Book" delivered from Treasury containing sage advice . It seems the bureaucrats are telling the government that there must be no more nonsense about a sustainable population.
According to a "PM" interview on September 24th the Red Book says it's all about infrastructure and planning.
"MARK COLVIN: What about population growth which was such an issue during the election campaign and on which Julia Gillard appeared to back away from Kevin Rudd's idea of the big Australia?
LYNDAL CURTIS: Yes in fact both sides of politics did but Treasury says if the net overseas migration averages only 60,000 a year over the next 40 years, a figure it says has been exceeded in 25 of the last 30 years, the population will be 29 million by 2050.
It says given the powerful forces driving the economy, net immigration figures in excess of that are probably inescapable but it says strong population growth is not necessarily unsustainable providing the planning is right. And it says there are concerns about the level of planning that has been done and it says there's a chronic under-investment in infrastructure. "
The Sydney Morning Herald reported yesterday that the "Think Tank" Centre for Independent Studies has just come out with a report on Australia's population which "...... tested 36 scenarios using different combinations of migration levels, fertility rates and life expectancy. Population would grow under every scenario except in the unlikely event where migration was cut to zero, the birth rate plummeted and life expectancy stagnated." ("Bigger Australia as certain as death and taxes," Sydney Morning Herald, Oct 7th)
Since Australia's birth rate is now approximately twice the death rate this is not surprising although without immigration our population would stabilise towards mid-century.
What the Centre for Independent Studies gets out of this is that the government should not even think it has any control over future population levels but simply plan for a larger population in terms of infrastructure.
This conclusion of the C.I.S. appears from the article to be so simplistic that if Clive Hamilton's sanity and logic had not been reported, the thinking coming out of this might have been widely accepted by those who read the article. Mr. Hamilton points out and is reported in the article that it does in fact make a difference if Australia's population increases by 3 or 14 million.
Comments
James Sinnamon
Sun, 2010-10-10 13:17
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The Australian's suicidal plan for humanity
A recent article in favour of population growth is Rise of the Mega-cities And why they will save the human race by Doug Saunders. A brief note at the end of the article mentions that Doug Sanders is author of Arrival City: how the Largest Migration in History is Reshaping our World from which the article obviously derives much of its content. The article, itself, was two and a half pages in length including a page of photos . It also had a promotional page including a photo which comprised the front page of the Weekend Australian Magazine of 21-22 August 2010.
The fact that a major daily newspaper, the Australian can promote and print an article, which proposes such a clearly suicidal course for humanity as, instead, a solution to humankind's current predicament confirms that that this paper's continued ongoing influence gravely threatens our future.
In fact, Doug Saunders pretends to be in favour of global human population stability, but, mind you, only after humankind has continued to its conclusion what he claims is the current depopulation of rural areas by crowding ever more hundreds of millions into the world's cities. He insists that this will actually rescue billions now in grinding rural poverty by giving them access to more lucrative livelihoods, presumably in the factories of the larger cites.
He claims that it will actually be possible for the further industrialisation of farming that he argues must inevitably follow the depopulation of rural areas to make even more food available to feed not only the remaining residents of rural regions, but the billions of residents or the cities. In Saunders' words:
Of course, Saunders 'forgets' that "this high-yield agriculture" depends upon the availability of water and of energy stored in fossil fuel fertilisers. Australia and most regions of the world are running out of both the necessary water and the fossil fuels.
If Saunders is wrong, as he must surely be, then what ghastly fate awaits the hundreds of millions more crowded into cities a long way from the land, when the mechanised agricultural systems inevitably fail to produce anywhere near as much food as is needed by them? By comparison, the humanitarian disaster in which over a million inhabitants of the Soviet City of Leningrad died, mostly from starvation during its 900 day siege from 1941 until 1944 by the invading Germans, will look like a weekend picnic in comparison with what awaits the hundreds of millions crowded into the megacities of the future.
Living in non-urban areas the cause of poverty?
A lie that Saunders' thesis is based upon is that rural inhabitants can only possibly live in desperate poverty and only through urbanisation can they hope to achieve any kind of affluence.
He attempts to draw a distinction between 'rural' poverty on the one hand and 'urban' poverty on the othee, claiming the latter to be far more benign:
Why people, living in urban areas, have a guaranteed protection from starvation is not explained.
In reality, rural settlements, controlled from the grassroots up, have given much of humanity both good standards of living and a strong sense of community throughout most of our history. The desperately poor rural communities that Saunders holds up as the fate which must await anyone who does not live in a modern crowded suburbia is only the by-product of the form of industrialisation which has been imposed upon much of the world by Britain since the 18th century.
RichB
Sun, 2010-10-10 14:01
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Raising Imbeciles..
quark
Sun, 2010-10-10 18:04
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Wild life and people
Milly
Sun, 2010-10-10 18:35
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Stop political manipulations
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