Article by Mark O'Connor
Despite The Age's headline, "Populate or Stagnate," (March 10, 2010) most of Saul Eslake's[1] article is about admitting the costs of population growth. He makes some very useful admissions (see the phrases I have marked in bold, below).
Even at the end when he swings round predictably to backing growth, he warns his allies:
"But building public acceptance for ''a bigger Australia'' requires a greater willingness to acknowledge that it has costs, as well as benefits. It also needs more readiness to deal with those problems than has thus far been shown by those most enthusiastic about the benefits of faster population growth."
This is a tactic the growth lobby and our politicians are already following. At the Queensland Property Council's conference last Friday both Anna Bligh and Tania Plibersek repeatedly stated that they understood people's pain, and that they admitted and deeply understood the problems population growth was causing. Yet in the end their solution was to press on regardless and tell people to get used to it. Hence they talked vaguely about how "better planning" or "us in government trying harder" or "letting people see a few iconic examples of good high rise development as soon as possible" would solve the problem. I call this their "Yes, repeat No" approach.
"Yes, we hear your pain and we understand absolutely. No we don't intend to take any notice of your protests."
While this tactic is infuriating, it is also a sign that they know they are in a weak position. It will rapidly become untenable if we articulate (as I have above) what their ploy is, and demand that they stop doing it (or even that they apologise for having tried to hoodwink us with it).
In Saul's case, he hangs almost everything on his argument that if government was prepared to borrow more boldly to provide extra infrastructure in advance of the population needing it rather than, as at present, "in a discontinuous or ''lumpy' manner" ---then the problems of population growth would be solved.
Infrastructure for growth costs vastly exceed benefits of growth
He fails to understand the points made in Jane O'Sullivan's recent article "The downward spiral of hasty population growth"
As she points out, the reason governments can't catch up with infrastructure is that the costs of infrastructure for additional people so vastly exceed the extra benefits that extra people bring. The infrastructure costs can in some respects outweigh the economic gains by as much as 30 to 1.
"Does it make sense," asks Jane O'Sullivan, "that we’re incurring a 25 per cent of GDP cost to avoid less than 0.8 per cent of GDP cost?"
Saul's (and the Grattan Institute's) biases also show when he lists the "dampening" of wages in favor of business profits as a self-evident good.
Mr Eslake seems to have placed the same article in several papers and online forums. Google "saul Eslake" + "Populate or stagnate" for the list.
NOTES
[1]Saul Eslake was for 14 years chief economist at the ANZ Bank. In August 2009 he moved to the Melbourne-University-affiliated Grattan Institute as Program Director for its Productivity Growth Program. The Grattan Institute is part of the growth lobby, or in the more genteel language of the University’s media release “The Grattan Institute is a new think tank aiming to shape the direction of debate on many of the important challenges facing Australia. It was set up with substantial support from the University of Melbourne in conjunction with the Commonwealth and Victorian Governments, and BHP Billiton. Note by Mark O’Connor )
Comments
Milly (not verified)
Thu, 2010-03-11 16:29
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Addiction to growth is like any other
Sherkahn (not verified)
Fri, 2010-03-12 13:15
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Letter to Gillard on Population explosion.
With Sydney's population set to grow 40 per cent to 6 million in the next 25 years, the government has decided it needs a metropolitan development authority to buy privately owned land near rail and bus routes for medium- and high-density housing.
I recently sent Julia Gillard this email:
Why has NOBODY realised that whatever else you do POPULATION CONTROL WORLDWIDE is the only true cure.
At Copenhagen NOBODY mentioned OVERPOPULATION of the World. WHY, the POPULATION debate is coming! In 50 years world population has TRIPLED. (2-6 billion) At the present rate, 6 billion now = 18 billion in another 50 years!
People =Factories=Pollution=Global warming=Degradation of Environmental Balance=Stress on all living things.
Moving people around the World is NOT A SOLUTION.
Global warming debate is here, but NOBODY connected the dots.
Spreading people around the World is NOT a solution at all.
Populations must be reduced.
Found on BBC environmental news: More than a third of species assessed in a major international biodiversity study are threatened with extinction, scientists have warned.
These included 21% of all known mammals, 30% of amphibians, 70% of plants and 35% of invertebrates.
At what point will society truly respond to this growing crisis?
Professor Jonathan Baillie,
Zoological Society of London.
Recently on TV it was stated that 50 % of these losses happened in Australia.
In the AMAZON an area the size of VICTORIA is being cleared of trees each year!
This is caused entirely by the increase in Human Population!
It cannot go on. Spreading people around the world is NOT the answer.
Neither is the argument: more people are needed to finance seniors. We seniors must learn to manage with less. It will balance out in two generations.
We do not wish to be a dumping ground for overpopulated Countries.
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