Candobetter.net Editor: Article updated with full submission included and relabeling of table. The Commonwealth Senate released its long-awaited report on housing affordability on 8 May last, conveniently a few days before the release of the Federal Budget. The 461 page report examined, inter alia, the many supply and demand factors which impact on housing prices and affordability, and acknowledged that supply was not keeping up with demand – an obvious and major cause of rising house prices. But the emphasis of its recommendations was that the solution lay in increasing supply rather than in reducing demand. The elephant in the room, namely population growth, although mentioned in several submissions, hardly featured in its recommendations. This is not surprising, given the reluctance of politicians to face up to the obvious but politically awkward issues of immigration and birth rates, especially with the high level of influence exerted by vested business and property interests (including the recently revealed large number of politicians who own investment property).
You can read the report in the following link: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Affordable_housing_2013/Report
My own submission to the housing inquiry argued that it is virtually impossible for supply to keep up with population growth, and that population growth is a major cause of the growing inequality between rich and poor. Read the submission below.
Submission to Household Affordability Inquiry by Bob Braby 19 March 2014
As the submissions to this inquiry indicate, there is a range of factors that can affect housing affordability in the short and medium term. But it is the long term effect of population growth that must be addressed if there is to be any lasting improvement in housing affordability. Short term band-aid measures are not sustainable. For example , increasing the supply of residential land on the urban fringe may enable the supply of housing to increase for a time , but it will also reduce the supply of raw land and eventually show up in higher land prices - and factored into future housing costs. Likewise, grants to first - home owners might provide some temporary relief , but will be self defeating to the extent that they also increase demand and house prices.
It is like chasing your hat on a windy day ; just as you think you have caught it, it blows further away . You will only catch it when the wind stops.
The link between population growth and property prices is well established in research studies, although denied by those with vested interests. Elementary supply and demand theory supports these results. Supply cannot keep up with increasing demand because:
1. The supply of raw land is fixed by nature.
2. The supply of serviced land is subject to environmental constraints ; for example, in Melbourne by Port Phillip Bay and the Mornington Peninsula in the south, the Dandenong ranges in the east and the Yarra valley in the north-east .
3. Development of broad acres requires rezoning to residential, but governments choose to restrict this to prevent urban sprawl.
4. Most people prefer to live close to the CBD rather than on the urban fringe, to take advantage of recreational, cultural and sporting facilities and employment opportunities. But the supply of vacant land in the inner and middle suburbs is very limited. In addition to the effect on land prices, this may lead to increased density in the form of high-rise development with increased building costs (per unit of net floor area), thus exacerbating the effect on affordability.
The effect of these various supply constraints is a steady increase in real land prices over time, as illustrated in some of the submissions to this inquiry and in a study by myself. Note also the high correlation between population size and land prices in our capital cities, with the exception of Darwin. But Darwin is bound by water on three sides and subject to severe environmental constraints as mentioned above.
The net effect of population growth is therefore a downward effect on household affordability . Worse, increasing house prices flow on to higher rents, with low-income people locked out of the housing market and trapped in a vicious circle of rent dependency and poverty. These unfortunate people do not share fully in the benefits of productivity growth, because improved wages over time are offset by higher rents. This can be illustrated by the following table, which shows three categories of people who may or may not benefit from economic growth.
[Editor comment: title of table changed 22 May 2015 to correct a transcription error.]
People who are employed and own their own house (col.2) benefit from productivity growth and are insulated from rising property prices. Those who are employed but cannot afford a house (col.3) benefit from productivity growth , but these benefits are eroded by increasing real rents induced by population growth.
Pensioners who do not own their own home (col .4 ) lose both ways and are at the mercy of government.
Governments need to drastically rethink the harmful effects of population growth, not only on housing affordability but also on the built and natural environment.
Robert Braby
19.3.2014
Comments
Anonymous (not verified)
Fri, 2015-05-22 14:34
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Housing is not meant to be affordable
The frenzy of building houses, struggling to keep up with population growth, is not about providing a service, or creating "affordable housing". It's an industry, to make investors happy and produce good returns. Pumping up our population with skilled economic migrants ensures demand remains inflated, as we all need some sort of housing. It's an investor's market, a reflection of the fading mining boom, we now have a housing boom!
The fact that we are producing more and more homelessness is being ignored by governments. They are just the flotsam and jet-some of "economic growth" and lazy economics. Easier to blame dysfunctional human traits, such as drugs, alcohol, domestic violence and poverty, not the whole cause and effect of unaffordable housing. Liberal governments don't have ethics, or social conscience, so it's just about money and profits.
Then Britain’s leading economist, John Maynard Keynes, explained that capitalism could last indefinitely under the new conditions if certain traditional policies of the capitalist governments and central banks were changed.
Government policies based on Keynesian theories and the institution of central banking form a nexus of central economic planning. It's a winner-take-all proposition for businesses. Housing is one of the three pillars of the Australian economy, along with financial institutions and natural resources, but banks are warning that houses in Australia are the most inflated of anywhere in the world.
Various governments sold out to the international central banking cartel long ago, with a variety of short sighted “deals” such as the GST , compulsory superannuation, FIrst home buyers, High immigration, and "free” trade! The models themselves are based on Keynesianism currency, which we are told means that more circulating money = more GDP= A better economy. Central Bankers need to convert every productive asset and home into a ” bank asset” and drain wages and earnings from workers into their clutches. Melbourne and Sydney are set to double in population in the next few years. It's all about promoting and inflating the housing bubble, lending, and our GDP. The fact that infrastructure backlog is blowing out won't be a problem as the people will pay for it!
Nick F. (not verified)
Thu, 2015-05-28 13:30
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Rally against the Chinese real estate invasion! May 30, Sydney
Australia is under attack from greedy foreign intruders who are rapidly acquiring Australian residential property pricing locals out of the market. Aussie battlers are being pushed to the fringes of our cities while foreign intruders are reaping the benefits of hard working previous generations. The price of housing in Sydney and Melbourne has skyrocketed crushing the dreams and aspirations of young Australian families who are increasingly dispossessed. The new dispossessed or forgotten people will one day be remembered as the ‘stolen generation’ priced out of the market by invading overseas Chinese colonising our suburbs and cities.
The Australian dream of owning a residential home is rapidly becoming a distant memory due to the drastic increase in mass third world immigration coupled with foreign ownership. Housing affordability has become a smashed due to foreign buyers snapping up property at our expense.
In particular Chinese foreign ownership of residential property and assets is pushing the Australian prospective homebuyer to the fringes of society living in compromised living arrangements competing against foreign forces invited here by the policies of the major political parties who ignore the plight and struggles of young families seeking to progress up the economic ladder.
Chinese nationals are Australia’s largest foreign buyers of residential property and farms with recent figures showing over 20% of new residential property in NSW and Victoria sold to foreign nationals but contrary to the lies perpetrated by real estate agents (pimps) and government officials, they’re not just buying expensive properties. New figures reveal that around 70% of all sales to foreign buyers were below the $1 million mark.
Demography is destiny, and with the full support of the major parties, Australia is undergoing a drastic demographic change. Traditional Australians are becoming strangers in their own land with many of our suburbs being turned into third world ghettoes riddled with crime, social friction and impending real estate bubble collapse. Current trends indicate Australians will become a minority in their own land within the next 30 years if present invasion figures continue.
Party for Freedom is a grassroots patriotic political party that represents the forgotten people. We need your support on the 30th May in sending a strong message to the Chinese government and Chinese nationals that their residential property purchases (ownership) in Australia is not welcome.
Pls. bring Aussie flags, and placards expressing your opposition to Chinese nationals raiding the local residential property market.
Where: Chinese Consulate,
39 Dunblane Street, Camperdown
Date: Saturday 30th May 2015
Time: 12 noon to 2pm
Dennis K
Thu, 2015-05-28 21:16
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Not a bad idea, what else can we do?
nimby
Sat, 2015-05-30 13:07
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Vitriol from SBS
'Redneck' anti-foreigner flyers distributed ahead of Sydney protest is how the SBS present this protest!
Their accusation is that "the organiser behind an anti-foreign investment rally at the Chinese Consulate denies his campaign is racially motivated, dismissing government figures citing the necessity of foreign buyers.."
They throw in all the taboo words, such as "anti-immigration", "red-neck", "racist" and "anti-foreign investment" along with all the other condemnation of the Party for Freedom.
"The new dispossessed or forgotten people will one day be remembered as the 'stolen generation' priced out of the market by invading overseas Chinese colonising our suburbs and cities," their website reads. Actually they are quite accurate! That's what's happening now to people, they are dispossessed because of unaffordable housing and high population growth!
Urban Taskforce Australia, a group of property developers, say that Chinese investment was “not considered to be at a level to warrant the community concerns and intense media scrutiny”. In conclusion, it stated that foreign investment was “a vital component” of the housing economy. How do groups with such entrenched vested interests determine the sovereignty of our housing?
How many migrants come to Australia to buy a house, get a job, and work towards a "better life" only to find foreigners are allowed access to our housing, to push up prices?
SBS: Redneck anti-foreigner flyers distributed ahead of Sydney protest
Indonesians buy property here but Australians cannot buy property in Indonesia. Canada has already passes legislation which doesn't allow the Chinese and the Indians to buy their visas or buy properties. Australians cannot buy property in China therefore this relationship with China is unilateral and certainly not for the long term benefit of Australia.
Dennis K
Sat, 2015-05-30 23:25
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Investment levels are a concern
Stop the housin... (not verified)
Mon, 2015-06-01 19:06
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Abbott wants house prices to increase
'I do hope our housing prices are increasing': Tony Abbott quizzed on housing bubble.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has welcomed increasing house prices in Sydney on the same day the head of Treasury voiced strong concerns about a developing housing bubble in the country's largest city. Wonder how many houses does our Prime Minister have?
"I want housing to be affordable but nevertheless, I also want house prices to be modestly increasing". What hypocrisy! The prices have more than "moderately" increased, and many people are locked out. He wants people to have resources, jobs and houses, but houses are NOT available. We can't go any higher.
“As someone who, along with a bank, owns a house in Sydney, I do hope that our housing prices are increasing,” Mr Abbott told Parliament today.
Labor’s Andrew Giles was among the MPs to slam Mr Abbott’s comments, saying they were “extraordinary”.
Tony Abbott opened his mouth in without controlling his tongue, and now we know his real agenda of protecting his own interests and that of the super-wealthy investors.
Without any real economic activities except for inflating house prices, our nation is becoming divided by the capital owners and those struggling with cuts to public funds, and falling into a hole of deprivation and poverty.
Abbott should walk down the street and see the homeless and distitute.
Appendix: Ostensible mainstream media indignation against Tony Abott
'I do hope our housing prices are increasing': Tony Abbott quizzed on housing bubble (1/6/15) | SMH
Analysis: Sydney housing bubble threat presents challenges for Government, Reserve Bank (1/6/15) | ABC News
Housing affordability: The comment that shows that Tony Abbott doesn’t get it (1/6/15) | SMH
Tony Abbott wants house prices to keep rising, contradicts RBA and Treasury who warn of a bubble (1/6/15) |SMH
quark
Wed, 2015-06-03 12:13
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Normalising conflicts of interest
Robert Braby
Mon, 2015-06-08 16:20
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Chinese investment in housing
Dennis K
Wed, 2015-06-10 21:21
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Population growth now no longer main driver
Sheila Newman
Wed, 2015-06-10 23:23
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Population, perception and drivers
Robert Braby
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:54
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Current housing boom - will it end?
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