nightmare

There is a fascinating dichotomy in the operation of society today. On the one hand, there is the drive for progress, for economic growth powered by money. On the other hand, there is the ecological reality that the operation of civilization entails the irreversible draw down of the limited natural bounty capital in combination with using the reliable natural bounty income . These views of the operation of civilization are in conflict. Economic growth entails an increase in the rate of decline of the natural capital . Yet economic growth is clearly flourishing with China and India leading a charge by developing countries trying to emulate America and other developed industrial nations. It is analogous to the captain of the Titanic signaling to the engine room for more speed because he cannot see any icebergs ahead . The situation is like a tug-o-war that economics appears to be winning although there are some signs of weakness emerging. The powerful are noticing the dependence on energy as the main supplies become questionable and they are deemed to cause climate change . Industrialized civilization is very dependent on using energy so society tends to take the fundamentals like food and water for granted, whilst they can . They still have the belief that technology can overcome any problem so it will continue to be full steam ahead. They espouse the value of the trickle down principle in eventually alleviating the grim situation of the increasing number of poor even as their position worsens At the same time, the small number of knowledgeable and concerned people on the other side finds great difficulty in mounting a challenge to the economic growth paradigm. They know that ecology will ultimately win the tug-o-war as it has overwhelming, continuing, tangible forces on its side. They know that the intangible, money will ultimately lose its strength. Natural capital is irreversibly declining so the capability of industrial capital to continue to grow is not possible. It must go into decline in the near future. They are frustrated, however, at their inability to wake the middle class up to what is really happening now. The elite naturally will continue to pursue business as usual as it privatizes financial profits while the real costs are socialized. There is no financial mechanism to account for the fact that the major elements of natural capital are exhaustible . There is no financial mechanism to realistically account for the damage to the environment. Yet most of society continues to view the operation of civilization in monetary terms. So the cornucopians continue to sway the masses even as the natural capital continues to decline rapidly. Time is running out but few can see the clock. There is, therefore, no question of the ultimate outcome, a greatly reduced global population making best possible use of the remaining natural bounty capital but living primarily on the dependable natural bounty income. The well off in the global community will be relatively immune to the inevitable powering down of the operation of civilization even as its salutary effects trickle up. The increasing cost of food is not solely due to the impact of climate change and the increasing cost of fuel. The question is when will society at large wake up to this holistic reality and do something to alleviate the materialistic decline whilst trying to maintain cultural achievements. Big business can be expected to respond slowly to their gradually emerging understanding of the power of unyielding ecological forces . They will endeavor to seize the financial opportunities, regardless of the social costs. Governance, as ever, will just follow. The financial markets will doubtless continue to play their nebulous games at the expense of the bourgeois but these games have little connection to the ecological reality. There is a changing of the guard amongst the first world powers while the second world powers strive to raise their status. Access to natural resources is, as ever, an element in these power plays. But there is still the belief in business as usual as they compete for the means of enhancing their economic growth. They pay lip service to helping those people and countries left behind. They pay lip service to the ecological realities without acknowledging their responsibilities. It seems that overt recognition of their contribution to pollution and environmental devastation is beneath their dignity. And consideration of future consequences of running out of exhaustible materials is clearly too hard. A major question then is how soon will the phantom economic growth peak and go into terminal decline. Rising oil, food and water prices are financial symptoms of the impact of the cancer that is industrialization but there is very little sign of widespread appreciation of the influence of biophysical realities on these trends. There is little doubt that these trends will combine with the excesses of the financial market frenzy of the past decade to cause a financial depression . Money will continue to be the dominating force in the operation of society despite the lack of connection with reality. It is most likely that the powerful will continue to believe that this is primarily an economic and technological issue, so showing their continued ignorance of the power of the ecological realities. The responses will, therefore, hardly be conducive to a rational powering down, so it will exacerbate the pain for all other than the elite. There can be little doubt that the privileged core of society will manage to maintain their exalted position despite the emergence of altruistic people power rising to the challenge of trying to cope with the decline. The masses are already suffering the consequences of emasculation of proven natural food production methods and other consequences of industrialization, including climate change, combined with manipulation by the powerful. Many are going hungry in order that Westerners will have enough fuel for their cars. There is very little prospect of their situation improving as the available natural capital becomes scarcer . Desertification, the impact of pollution, de-forestation, decimation of fisheries, reduction of soil fertility and contamination of groundwater are realities that will continue to further dampen their prospects. Urbanization does not provide a realistic escape. To summarize, the fundamental problem in the operation of civilization is that there is no mechanism to account for the fact that natural bounty capital is limited, irreplaceable yet being used up exuberantly. Consequently, society is going to have to learn the hard way that their enthusiastic, irreversible use of this natural capital is unsustainable. Economic growth will slow in the rich and powerful regions even as the ecological reality of scarce available natural capital hits the downtrodden. This scarcity will have a trickle up effect with a global financial depression serving to realign market forces to a degree. It is ironical that the financial bubble of this century, whilst seeming to make many people wealthy, will actually make it harder for the well off in society to cope with the looming collapse. There is considerable uncertainty about how rapidly the decline will develop, even amongst those with understanding of the inherent limitations of market forces and technology and an appreciation of the many signs of ecological devastation. It is to be hoped that people power rising to the challenge will ease the powering down. The global population is bound to peak within the next few decades. The cities and associated industrial capital will tend to become redundant as the priorities for using some of the remaining natural capital change. Energy determines what happens but money is the major tool in deciding what is initiated, both good and bad. This situation is likely to be only slightly moderated as ecological reality forces change. The coming depression is therefore likely to have the greatest impact on the availability of the essentials for the poor whilst having little influence on what the elite think and do. Understanding of the dependence of operation of civilization on what is available from the environment is unlikely to emerge from the fiscal fog. Civilization has built up a towering edifice with unsound foundations by using up a high proportion of the limited natural bounty capital in a short time. Ecological forces will ensure a collapse this century but it will not be those humans who have gained the most from the economic growth paradigm who will pay the price of the exuberance of the 20th century. They are leaving a horrible legacy. That is the human side of the tragedy of transient industrialized civilization. The environment will doubtless slowly recover to a large extent from this ill-conceived experiment. Denis Frith Melbourne Australia [email protected] ‘What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization.’ http://users.bigpond.net.au/jaymz/download/Gaia_and_Us-Denis_Frith-jun07...