GDP per capita

In a letter to the ABC 7.30 Report, former Democrats leader and Senator, Dr John Coulter, describes dismay at the "biased and misleading report on population" broadcast on 13 October 2009. He lambasts the claim that population growth was necessary for economic growth and for raising the 'standard of living': "While Australia has shown a very slight increase in total GDP in recent quarters, its per capita GDP has been negative because total growth has been swamped by population growth." John Coulter, who is Vice President of Sustainable Population Australia, also said that the ABC allowed [ex-Democrat Senator], Andrew Bartlett, "to present and then demolish a straw man without challenge".
Full text of letter sent to 7.30 Report, ABC National Television on 14 October 2009, plus headings and links by candobetter editor:

Dear 7.30 Report,

I am absolutely dismayed at your biased and misleading report on population broadcast last evening. Either you and your journalists are extremely ignorant on this issue or, as appears most likely, you are quite deliberately presenting a misleading account of this vital issue.

Apart from Bob Carr all the interviewees were pro-population growth with a clear vested interest in this position. They were allowed to make quite inaccurate statements without challenge from your journalist. For example, it was claimed that population growth was necessary for economic growth and for raising the 'standard of living'.

No statistically significant link

In industrialised countries such as Australia there is no statistically significant link between either population size or population growth rate, on the one hand, and growth in per capita GDP on the other. Even more simply, and several prominent and conventional economic commentators such as Ross Gittins in the SMH have pointed this out, while Australia has shown a very slight increase in total GDP in recent quarters, its per capita GDP has been negative because total growth has been swamped by population growth. It has been most negative in those states with the highest population growth rates such as Queensland and WA. This is quite contrary to what was stated in your program and without the contrary and true position being put.

No Conservation Position

Moreover, no conservation position was put in relation to limits to population growth. Instead you presented Andrew Bartlett who was allowed to present and then demolish a straw man without challenge.

Your report could not have been more misleading and biased or designed to reinforce the view that population growth was both inevitable and desirable and without serious environmental consequences.

You have brought shame on the ABC.

Dr John Coulter Vice President, Sustainable Population Australia Inc & former Leader Australian Democrats."

Despite figures showing economic growth in some states, per capita GDP has fallen in every state in Australia, according to Sustainable Population Australia Inc (SPA).

Dr John Coulter, National President of SPA, says residents of those states in which gross GDP has risen have had their apparent advantage wiped away by population growth.

December quarter per capita economic decline in every state

'Most economic commentators assume that changes in GDP are proxy measures for changes in human welfare,' says Dr Coulter. 'Accepting for the moment that this is the case, then change in GDP per person, rather than gross GDP, is actually a better measure of welfare.

'If we look at per capita rather than gross GDP, then all states show negative growth for the December quarter.'

Tasmanians did better than all other states.

Dr Coulter notes that Tasmania, with the lowest rate of population growth, showed the least negative economic growth with only a 0.1% fall per capita. Western Australia, which had the highest rate of population growth, shows the second largest fall in per capita GDP at almost 2%.

'Queensland is in a similar position,' he says, 'sharing with the Northern Territory the second highest rate of population growth but having the third largest fall in per capita GDP. South Australia has the biggest drop in GDP, a high rate of population growth relative to the economy and the largest decline in per capita GDP at 2.5%.'

The figures indicate no economic or welfare advantage from a growing population

Dr Coulter says the figures indicate no economic or welfare advantage from a growing population.

'They confirm calculations I have made over many years comparing OECD countries. These calculations repeatedly show no statistically significant correlation between population growth and growth of per capita GDP. They parallel the conclusion of the Productivity Commission report which showed that, despite excluding many of the environmental costs of a larger population, there was no demonstrable link between increase in immigration and per capita economic growth.'

With respect to tackling climate change, Dr Coulter notes that the Rudd Government clearly accepts that there are considerable environmental costs from a growing population.

'In fact, there are a host of other environmental costs from population growth,' he says.

'It is long past the time for all Australian Governments to adopt population policies aimed at environmental sustainability, rather than the mirage of economic and welfare benefits from a growing population.'

For further comment or information:
Dr John Coulter 08/8388 2153

From a media release
5 March 2009