infrastructure

"Your program and so many on the ABC ignore the real prospect of widespread social, economic and environmental breakdown consequent on a human population having exceeded the long term carrying capacity of Nature. The ABC in its general coverage assumes a continuation of Business as Usual. Climate change, if present trends continue leads to a world 3 – 4 degrees warmer at century’s end. (David Attenborough in his recent TV program on climate change used the figures 3 - 6 degrees.) Together with declines in soil quality, water availability, food shortages and massive biodiversity loss these things have many scientists foreshadowing an imminent reduction in the global human population and a world in chaos."

Dear Geraldine,

Your program re infrastructure on [16 August 2019] yesterday's 'Breakfast' program did a great disservice to your audience. It perpetuated myths not supported by facts and failed to mention the real alternative context in which matters like this must be considered.

As a former medical epidemiologist I am very familiar with statistical analysis. Among OECD industrialised countries there is no statistically significant correlation between rates of population growth and per capita growth of GDP. Among poor countries there is a significant and strong negative correlation between population growth and growth of per capita GDP. It is therefore misleading to claim that population growth is causing increases in per capita GDP, i.e. making the average Australian materially better off. This myth serves the interests of those who do benefit from population growth.

GDP and per capita GDP are themselves misleading indicators of real benefit. The costs, yes costs, borne by people as a consequence of growth of population and expenditure on infrastructure are added to GDP. Travel times are reported to have increased by 23% with increases in fuel costs, car maintenance, insurance etc. These are real costs but are added to GDP. The costs of a growing economy have exceeded the benefits for many years for ordinary people explaining why it is that so many feel worse off even while governments and programs like yours keep telling people they have never had it so good.

Your program and so many on the ABC ignore the real prospect of widespread social, economic and environmental breakdown consequent on a human population having exceeded the long term carrying capacity of Nature. The ABC in its general coverage assumes a continuation of Business as Usual. Climate change, if present trends continue leads to a world 3 – 4 degrees warmer at century’s end. (David Attenborough in his recent TV program on climate change used the figures 3 - 6 degrees.) Together with declines in soil quality, water availability, food shortages and massive biodiversity loss these things have many scientists foreshadowing an imminent reduction in the global human population and a world in chaos. Despite this evident danger every government in Australia and most around the world continue to make decisions based on an assumption of business as usual, that they can go on driving both population and economic growth, the two primary causes of our worsening situation. How do you reconcile that prospect with a continuation of unquestioned population growth in Australia. Climate change is likely to impact Australia's ability to grow food quite severely. We may have difficulty even feeding the present population let alone a much larger one before century's end.

Australia's ecological footprint has varied between 4 and 5.6 Earths over the last decade. Do you really think it morally right for us to go on increasing the total size of our demand on Nature by seeking both to increase our population and our per capita demand (growing GDP as our main goal)? I invite you to do the sums which show that we could achieve more human welfare by massively increasing our foreign aid and addressing that aid primarily toward education for girls, family planning and contraception than spend that some money on more infrastructure in Australia for the purpose of accommodating a much larger population.

Here is a much saner voice on the issue of infrastructure from a fellow journalist, Crispin Hull.

http://www.crispinhull.com.au/2019/08/16/treating-symptoms-no-help-to-australia/

John

The Victorian branch of Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) expresses deep concern that Australia will reach 25 million people this week. In anticipation of this milestone, SPA literally took to the sky on the issue by flying a small plane over Melbourne to see first hand whether bigger means better.

In an ex-military Cessna Birddog ideal for photography, SPA member Dr. Graeme Dennerstein and professional photographer Tanya Fry flew over Melbourne during a morning week-day rush hour to investigate the magnitude of traffic congestion, urban sprawl and high-rise development which are progressively impacting the people of Melbourne as the city reaches a population of 5 million this year.

Photographer Tanya Fry said of her experience:

“We flew over Melbourne city all the way to Kerang. Camera in hand I thought I knew what I was about to see. The sights I saw from the tiny plane both shocked and saddened me. I expected a long urban sprawl and traffic jams of course but nothing like the scale I saw. The urban sprawl went on and on as far as the eye could see. Every freeway was at a standstill.”

“ When we finally did reach the outer parts it was the treeless paddocks all the way to Kerang that was so surprising. Where have all the trees gone? What is wrong with us humans.”

“From up in the air high above you see what we are doing to this great land of ours. If only there was more respect and more consciousness about how much we are thoughtlessly destroying.”

SPA Victorian/Tasmanian Branch president, Michael Bayliss, said: “It is impossible to imagine what Melbourne will look like from the air if the forecasts are true, if the city’s population reaches 8 million in 35 years time by 2050.”

“Our country, our capital cities and our regional centres are growing much faster than expected and this can’t go on indefinitely. Already our infrastructure is struggling to keep pace as we continue to build new suburbs over our precious food bowl, green space and wildlife habitats. We are leaving a poor legacy for future generations. Australia does not yet have a population policy and this has now become a primary concern for most Australians. It is time that our political leaders take notice and take action.”

Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) describes itself as an Australian, member-driven environmental charity which works on many fronts to encourage informed public debate about how Australia and the world can achieve an ecologically, socially and economically sustainable population. It expects to launch several new projects this year in order to encourage more public discussion around the impacts of population growth. It will be releasing a web series ‘Tough Crowd’ where Rod Quantock will interview other comedians and entertainers on the challenges of discussing population in wider society. It has also released a ‘PopCulture’ webpage and a series of videos to highlight the impacts of population growth on job security, traffic congestion and housing affordability.

A draft of this plan only seven months ago forecast a rise from 4.3 million to 6.5 million. That 50 per cent rise would be difficult enough to cope with, but 7.7 million is over 75 per cent . In any event, the fact that the projection has altered so radically is further
evidence that estimates of Melbourne's future population are totally unreliable.

Indeed Melbourne's population growth in recent years has far outpaced previous Government estimates.

The consequences of a 7.7 million population for Melbourne will be dramatic. Traffic congestion will be horrific. Housing prices will continue to skyrocket, leaving home ownership out of reach for young people. People will not be able to afford anything other than an apartment or a unit, and gardens and backyards will increasingly
become a thing of the past.

Grey infrastructure (freeways, drainage and sewerage systems etc) will proliferate, at the expense of green infrastructure (public open space and trees and shrubs on private land) and blue infrastructure (creeks, rivers, and beaches). Melbourne will become hotter as climate change is reinforced by the urban heat island effect.

According to Plan Melbourne a 7.7 million population would require over one and a half million more dwellings, of which 960,000 would occur in "established" areas, and 610,000 will occur in "growth" areas. In other words Melbourne will continue to grow both upwards and outwards, continuing its path to becoming an obese, hardened artery parody of its former self. By 2031, in the next 17 years, we will see 470,000 more people in the northern suburbs, 430,000 more in the west, 480,000 more in the south, 200,000 more in the east, and 280,000 more in Central Melbourne.

Accomplishing this will inevitably involve trampling over the rights of residents, who have time and time again indicated that they do not want their neighbourhoods and communities to change in this way.

Victoria First was formed as a non-government organisation last year to campaign against this kind of population growth. We believe that returning Australia's migration levels to those of the 1980s and 1990s will stop this rapid population growth and help us protect and pass on the things about Melbourne that make it a great place to live.

Anyone interested in joining Victoria First can contact the Secretary, Julianne Bell,

on (M) 0408 022 408.
Contact: Kelvin Thomson MP (M) 0458 750 700

NB: in fact, since this recent Media Release, the population of Victoria has been revised again and will now be "projected" at missile speed towards 10 million by 2050!

Government Growth Policy is not working – an example of one Growth Area municipality struggling under the financial burden of infinite population growth. Other growth corridors are also in stress.

Cardinia Shire is a largely rural municipality about 60 km from Melbourne. A government designated corridor of population growth and housing construction has been absorbing rapid population increase since 2003. The population is predicted to double over the next 10 years. Current Council records indicate that five families per day are moving into the corridor.

The council’s annual budget document and four year plan states that its greatest challenge is “managing population growth”. More administrative staff are required so the Council must move to expensive new premises in Officer. Increased financial responsibility has been placed on local government but despite an ongoing debt level of almost $50 million and increasing the annual rates each year over the past 10 years, there is still a major lack of infrastructure and services to meet the needs of the continuous high population growth coming into the growth corridor of the municipality. The infrastructure shortfall includes public transport, roads and schools for which State government is responsible. Ratepayers are virtually being taxed via Council rates, and a further increase to 6.8% this year will be a financial burden for a lot of property owners.

Huge residential and commercial development is impacting on former good quality agricultural land, sensitive environmental landscapes and waterways.

Traffic congestion is increasing, particularly on local roads not built to cope with the current volume flowing off the freeway. During morning and evening peak times traffic is at gridlock.

There is growing evidence of social disadvantage, a local welfare support agency is dealing with constant requests for assistance with food supplies, financial counselling etc. There has been an increase in antisocial behaviour, graffiti, and more serious instances of assault, burglaries and trades area break-ins. Local police are at their limit keeping up with the level of crime.

If this is the end result of government policies of high population economic growth and increased productivity, where are the supposed benefits? This is just one example of a growth area in one State of Australia. How many others are encountering similar problems?

Encouraging people to move out to Melbourne’s fringe areas, creating car dependent and socially disadvantaged communities where there is inadequate local employment and insufficient infrastructure is just not working.

Australian people urgently need a referendum on the need to limit the annual population intake via immigration, rather than on the merits of including local government in the Australian Constitution. Let’s get the priorities right. G. Terria (Fugitive from the Growth Corridor)/em>

Editorial comment: G. Terria, your suggestion that we need to hold an annual referendum is excellent. Elections such as the forthcoming Federal elections can be used as a referendum of sorts. You can vote for candidates opposed to population growth . Two such candidates are Jill Quirk and William Bourke, who are standing for the Stable Population Party in the Senate n Victoria. You could distribute your Senate preferences according to how other candidates measure up on population and other issues of concern. Ask all candidates standing for your Lower House seat what are his/her policy towards population and immigration and vote and allocate your preferences accordingly.

Despite the fact there are no publicly available plans for this project, Stage One of construction of the East West Link has already commenced with "geological investigation" (i.e. drilling for soil and rock samples and testing for underground water) along the proposed alignment of the above/under/on ground road way. As spelt out in the Eddington Review of 2008 the freeway/tollway is likely to be open cut through Royal Park. It seems that there has been a total failure to responsibly and democratically consult the Victorian Public on their wishes in this matter as it affects public lands. The snap protest will be held near the reserve with the drilling rig at the corner of Neill and Canning Streets Carlton outside the Dan O’Connell Hotel starting at 12:30 pm. (Melways Map Reference 2BK4).

Protectors of Public Lands and Carlton Residents Association

Protectors of Public Lands Victoria and Carlton Residents Association have called a snap protest tomorrow at 12:30 pm at the drilling site on the Reserve outside the Dan O’Connell Hotel in Carlton as part of the ongoing campaign of opposition to the East-West Link and support for the Doncaster Rail Link.

No publicly available plans but construction has commenced!

Despite the fact there are no publicly available plans for this project, Stage One of construction of the East West Link has already commenced with "geological investigation" (i.e. drilling for soil and rock samples and testing for underground water) along the proposed alignment of the above/under/on ground road way. In today’s Age Mr Jim Betts, Secretary of the Department of Transport, is quoted as saying that “the tunnel would … transform Alexandra Parade from a choked inner-city arterial into a ''modern boulevard'', with improved priority for buses and bicycles and a better run for the four intersecting north-south tram routes.” Previous comments made by the State Government, however, indicate that the 4 lane tollway/freeway might not be a tunnel but an above ground "aerial roadway" along Princes Street and through the inner suburbs, akin to CitiLink, with compulsory acquisition of property along the route. As most of the traffic off the Eastern Freeway is headed north-south, the Baillieu Government has now decided there should be access/exits to the city at major intersections in Carlton and Parkville. As spelt out in the Eddington Review of 2008 the freeway/tollway is likely to be open cut through Royal Park.

Ian Bird

Ian Bird Transport and Traffic Spokesperson for the Carlton Residents’ Association explains:

Protection of Victorian Era heritage and general liveability in Carlton has been a primary goal of the Carlton Residents Association for decades. The prospect of East-West Link access ramps, elevated roadways and flyovers on Princes Street and massive traffic on North-South arterial roads to the CBD, fills residents with horror.”

“A rail line to Doncaster would move 100,000 people per day, the same as the destructive East-West Link, but at one tenth the cost. It would dramatically reduce traffic congestion. The fact that the Baillieu Government has caved into the influential roads lobby and has ignored the sustainable rail option is a scandal. The East-West Link fails all rational tests and must be abandoned before more public money is squandered on it. Public transport, not toll roads, is the way of the future.”

Julianne Bell

Julianne Bell of PPL VIC says:

“We are unwilling to stand by and see Melbourne, vaunted as the most liveable city in the world, destroyed by a Neanderthal Government intent on turning us back to the 1960’s by construction of monumental road works and on/off ramps to the city. Alliances of community groups have been battling proposals for extension of the Eastern Freeway for the past decade. Of particular concern is the fate of Royal Park, a unique bushland park and home of the Melbourne Zoo and State Netball and Hockey Centre. We do not want to see parkland plus sportsfields and wetlands carved up and gouged out by an open cut freeway/tollway. Our message is ‘Public Transport not Tollways’.”

The snap protest will be held near the reserve with the drilling rig at the corner of Neill and Canning Streets Carlton outside the Dan O’Connell Hotel starting at 12:30 pm. (Melways Map Reference 2BK4).

Parking is available in Neill Street, off Rathdowne Street.

Sources:
Media Release, Monday 20 August, 2012 from Protectors of Public Lands Victoria Inc. (PPL VIC) and Carlton Residents’ Association Inc. (CRA)

Contact:

Julianne Bell Protectors of Public Lands Victoria Inc. Mobile: 0408 022 408

Ian Bird Carlton Residents' Association Phone: 9347 1411

My city’s been assaulted by an enemy within
That eats away its organs and pushes out its skin.

My city’s been assaulted by an enemy within
That eats away its organs and pushes out its skin.
Its green lungs are encroached upon with buildings and cement
And trees fall prey to processes not for their benefit
The creatures that inhabit them are treated like invaders
And councils put up possum bands to help their friends, the traders.

An example of a 'possum band'. This ridiculous sort of chastity belt for trees to stop possums sheltering where they have always sheltered is a cruel device for which residents unwittingly foot the bill to councils in nice little rorts arranged with the manufacturers of these totally unnecessary devices.

Our Bay was scarred so drastically, fish habitat destroyed
Dutch shipping firms arrived here by our government employed
Our scarce tax dollars spent on something few can see
To make Port Phillip’s shallow bed a highway in the sea

Our gentle houses on their blocks with gardens so appealing
Are bought for land and then smashed down by developers unfeeling
A moonscaped block means 6 for 1 of this you can be sure,
But these are not, as one might think much needed housing for the poor
They sell for more as “garden free” than all that went before!
If I had my way, most certainly, it would be against the law

Our suburbs densify, we’re told, to save the outer land.
But it’s not saved, it’s sleight of hand, the UGB’s right out of hand
It expanded once and then again. The belt is never ending
Blocked arteries, obesity: that’s the report I’m sending.
Now living here in Melbourne is as on a building site
The noise and the disruption remind us daily of our plight
We’re trapped in growth, why won’t they see?
This is the path to take from us our precious liberty.

Good news! The Federal Budget did not provide funds to Premier Baillieu for the East West Link. Julianne Bell thanks those 16 community groups for supporting PPL VIC and the Royal Park Protection Group for Ian Hundley's and her mission to Canberra on 27 March 2012 to present their submission to Infrastructure Minister Albanese in which they requested the Federal Government NOT fund the EW Link but support public transport projects. Ian Hundley and Julianne briefed staff. Thanks also go to the Greens "for their principled stand against the East West Link and for their advocacy for Doncaster Rail Link."

Article by Julianne Bell of Protectors of Public Lands Victoria Inc.

I. Good News from Federal Parliament Budget - No Funding for EW Link!

See below the message from Adam Bandt, Federal Member for Melbourne, with the good news that the Federal Budget did not provide funds for the East West Link, as requested by Premier Baillieu. We thank Adam and the Greens for their principled stand against the East West Link and for their advocacy for Doncaster Rail Link. We again thank those 16 community groups for supporting PPL VIC and the Royal Park Protection Group for our mission to Canberra on 27 March 2012 to present our submission to Infrastructure Minister Albanese in which we requested the Federal Government NOT fund the EW Link but support public transport projects. Ian Hundley and I briefed staff - the Minister's Chief Advisers on Transport - on the history of the extension of the Eastern Freeway/EW Link and on the public transport needs of greater Melbourne.

II Policy of City of Melbourne Re EW Link

On Tuesday 8 May 2012 at the City of Melbourne (CoM) Future Melbourne Committee meeting the City of Melbourne Transport Strategy was tabled. Under City of Melbourne Transport Strategy 2012 were the headings - Flexible and Adaptable - Private Transport - City Driving Page 52 of the attachment Objectives and Actions - East West Link 28. The text read: "Priority Action: Consider the Government’s proposed East West Link when details are known to make sure that it achieves the City of Melbourne’s transport plan for access to and through the central city hub." In 2008 in response to huge community opposition Council totally opposed the EW Link. It looked as though the Council was fence sitting last night. The Transport Strategy was, however, amended, to include reference to Council's resolution of 2008, which includes: That Council: 1.1. oppose the Eddington East West Road Tunnel and the use or reduction of any parkland and disruption to the community 1.2. oppose the use of parks for any works associated with an East West Road Tunnel...etc (This is only second hand information, please check it.) The City of Melbourne is certainly not going all the way to oppose the EW Link.

Unjustified complaints from Ted Baylieu

Ted Baillieu, the Liberal Premier of Victoria, is already complaining about underfunding for transport. Huge funds have already been given to Victoria by the Federal Government for the Regional Railway Project, however, so it is difficult to see what his problem is here.

III Media

See Age article Wednesday 9 May 2012 "Doncaster Rail Link may lead to more buses."
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/doncaster-rail-study-may-lead-to-more-buses-20120508-1yb0e.html

Julianne Bell
Secretary
Protectors of Public Lands Victoria Inc.
PO Box 197
Parkville 3052

Subject: Congratulations - a blow to Ballieu's East-West toll road.

Dear friends,

I am writing with some good news fresh from the federal budget lock-up.

The Federal Government has heeded our call and refused to fund Ballieu’s dirty and expensive toll road. It’s a great win for our campaign – congratulations!

We know the State Government is ready to start drilling but it’s going to be a lot harder and take a lot longer without federal backing, as Baillieu said himself tonight.

It’s a boost to our campaign to bring smarter and cleaner transport infrastructure to Melbourne.

We know there is a problem with transport in our city but the last thing we need is a private toll road from Hoddle Street right through Fitzroy, Carlton and North Melbourne to the Kensington, Docklands and Footscray area. Whether it’s above or below ground, it will disrupt our communities without relieving the congestion.

Building the Doncaster rail link would go some way to alleviating the congestion coming in from the East and help transform Melbourne into a world-class public transport city. That’s where I want our federal infrastructure dollars being spent and that’s what I’ll continue to campaign for.

We’ve still got a lot of work to do to win this campaign but I wanted to share this great with news as soon as I could.

Looking forward to continuing to work with you to keep Melbourne liveable,

Adam Bandt MP
Tuesday, May 08, 2012 8:10 PM

Adam Bandt MP

Federal Member for Melbourne

Deputy Leader of the Australian Greens

This article title is based on the title of a debate at the Municipal Association of Victoria AGM, which took place on Thursday, October 21 at Hotel Sofitel. The article itself is based on speech notes from SPA Victoria's president, Jill Quirk, for her part in the debate. Panel members were: Jill Quirk, President of Sustainable Population Australia (Victorian branch); Pru Sanderson, CEO, VicUrban; and Professor of Physiology, Roger Short, Melbourne University. The Chair was Jon Faine.

Sustainable population MUST BE THE DEAL since the alternative is societal and ecological collapse.

Sustainable means – able to be sustained/maintained without decay or degradation. Unless this is envisaged over a long period of time, it is meaningless in human terms. The previous custodians of this continent had staying power of over a period of 40,000 -60,000 years. Europeans have only made their mark- over about 230-50 years.

In other words if we are to be sustainable over any significant and meaningful time period, we’ve hardly begun.

Victoria at present does not have a sustainable population.

The State of the Environment (SOE) report 2008 reflects the simple fact that most areas of the state are highly stressed. Most natural vegetation, waterways, wetlands, coasts and rivers are reported in a parlous condition.

“Population growth, settlement and consumption patterns and climate change are the key drivers of environmental degradation in Victoria”

“Victoria’s population growth, increasing affluence and the expansion of our cities and towns, have contributed to unsustainable levels of resource consumption and waste production.”

It is clear that population growth combined with the broad practices of our society are leading us in the wrong direction. It is ultimately our environment which will dictate whether or not we are sustainable and it is therefore non negotiable. In order to achieve sustainability our environment must come before all the considerations including the economy.

To understand the seriousness of the SOE report and that with continuing population growth, if no changes are made, the situation will worsen must be also to understand that the end of our stay here is in sight.

Sustainable population must not be confused with "sustainable growth" in population which of course is an impossibility, even an oxymoron. Stabilization of our population as soon as we can should be our aim as it is necessary but not sufficient for long term sustainability

From localized to more pervasive environmental issues -

Greenhouse gases are an example of a waste product and in Australia rise in lock step with population growth.

Instead of striving to stabilize our population, which is necessary but not sufficient for sustainability, the push from those with the loudest voices is to grow as fast as we can.

Our leaders and planners need to incorporate resource depletion, including peak oil, in realistic rather than fanciful visions of our future.

In Victoria- what I hear is:

“Extension of UGB
High rise /Activity centers.”

But:

Post peak oil, Melbourne's outer suburbs and established areas will become less sustainable. Peak oil will highlight terrible problems of transport and self sufficiency.

Authorities, leaders and planners must bear this in mind.

Right now, as we cannot start any sooner –

Democracy crucial

The issue of democracy at a local level is crucial in shaping our future and needs to be protected.
We associate planning very much with local government. The role of councils ideally is as an intermediary between the rights of some and the assumed freedoms of others. At this level, the sustainability of local areas has the best chance of being protected.

As David Suzuki once said, referring to the protection of the environment, “Every victory is temporary, every defeat is permanent.”

We have no serious option but to be a sustainable population, so to me it is definitely a deal. The possibility of achieving it rests with all levels of government.

We need to acknowledge our impact, lessen our individual impact, stop seeking more, do less, and acknowledge that infrastructure is not the cure-all for runaway population growth.

We can stabilise our population. We cannot do it immediately but by mid century – yes.
We are not sustainable now.
We face oil depletion and declining environment

We owe it to ourselves and to our grandchildren and great grandchildren that a sustainable population must be THE DEAL.

Details of Event:

Audience of about 250 Councillors and Council officers from across Victoria, at MAV Annual Conference on Thursday, October 21, at Hotel Sofitel. Session title: "Sustainable Population – Deal or No Deal?"
Session Chair: Jon Faine
Panel members: Jill Quirk, President: Sustainable Population Australia (Victorian branch); Pru Sanderson, CEO, VicUrban; Professor Roger Short, Melbourne University.
Each Panel member spoke for approximately10 minutes , followed by questions and general discussion.

A graph from "Australian Population Scenarios in the context of oil decline and global warming" at http://www.crudeoilpeak.com shows that the bulge in the Australian population pyramid which growth economists say will cause a larger number of aging people than the economy can cope with, was obviously caused by high levels of post-war immigration. Dr Jane O'Sullivan has quantified the enormous cost in new infrastructure and maintenance of population growth.

This population pyramid, which appeared at http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1300 was made using ABS on-line population modeling software and purports to represent our population at 2007. [1]

Bulging Australian population pyramid

The graph shows that the bulge in the Australian population pyramid which growth economists say will cause a larger number of aging people than the economy can cope with, was obviously caused by high levels of post-war immigration. (The lighter coloured parts of the pyramid represent the overseas-born part of the Australian population.)

Without this high immigration, projections would show a much more moderate increase in the future proportion of aged to other cohorts in Australia's population. [a]

A growing population grows the problem: Dr Jane O'Sullivan

By continuing immigration at higher and higher levels our governments and the developer lobby will create a real monster of a problem.

University if Queensland, Agricultural Scientist, Dr Jane O'Sullivan has quantified the cost of constantly increasing infrastructure stock. She says:

"The point most overlooked about population growth is that it costs bucket-loads more than ageing, and many times more than the additional revenue from the extra people. You might think that, at 2 per cent growth, we need 2 per cent more infrastructure and services each year.

The problem is, to add 2 per cent to our infrastructure stock each year, we need more like 100 per cent more infrastructure construction activity that we'd need for a stable population. It works like this: if a cost-weighted average lifespan of infrastructure is around 50 years, we need to replace around 2 per cent of it each year to maintain current stocks. If we also have to grow by 2 per cent, that is twice the infrastructure burden.

The same multiplier principle applies to any durable asset. It turns out that the average lifespan of an asset is equal to the percentage increase in cost caused by each 1 per cent of growth. If buses last on average 15 years, we need to spend 15 per cent more on buses per 1 per cent of growth, just to maintain current service levels. If the average doctor or engineer works for 25 years, we need to graduate 25 per cent more per 1 per cent growth - at 2.1 per cent growth, that's over 50 per cent more graduates, and 65 per cent more enrolments per head of total current population.

Little wonder that the skilled migration program has only made the claims of skills shortages more strident.

The 2010 Intergenerational Report anticipates additional ageing-related costs of only 2.4 per cent of GDP by 2050, with population growth to 36 million.

Stabilising at 24 million would only increase this cost by around 0.8 per cent of GDP."Newcastle HeraldApril 28, 2010

Of course the Australian growth lobby knows this perfectly well and has ... um... engineered ... the situation. Australia, unlike European countries, pretends that this growth will create its own wealth, seeing population growth and demand for more infrastructure as an economic stimulus. In Europe it is rightly considered a cost.[2]

Notes

[a] [30-4-2010 this sentence was edited from one which said there would be no increase, which was overstating the situation.]

[1] I erroneously attributed the 'population pyramid' to the Productivity Commission, on 29-4-2010 when I first published this, but when I sought further details the next day, I found that it came from http://www.crudeoilpeak.com/?p=1300 My apologies.
[2] See Chapter Seven, notably the heading, "Reasons for Connections made to Housing and Demographics", in Sheila Newman, The Growth Lobby and Its Absence.

Report on the Victorian Transport Infrastructure Conference
11-12th May 2009 @ the Melbourne Convention Exhibition Centre
by Catherine Manning
President, Southern Victoria Community Action Group Inc.

Foreword: A huge thank you to all of the groups and individuals who contributed to the cost of a ticket so that our community could be represented at this conference. As expected, the conference failed to provide any new information about the implementation of the Victorian Transport Plan (VTP) and seemed to have left some who'd paid up to $1655- for a ticket deeply disappointed. (One participant told me he was so stressed about what he was going to report back to his boss, as he'd convinced him it was worth spending the money to go and 'do business'.) However, I believe it was well worth SVCAG being there, as I was able to publicly question several ministers and bureaucrats on behalf of all of our groups, and made it known that we were concerned at the 'exclusivity' of the event that was publicised as a 'high level forum for discussion and debate'. To download a copy of / or view the VTP please go to www.transport.vic.gov.au

Disclaimer: I have compiled this report from my notes taken at the conference. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information, only to say this is purely an honest account of how I saw the event, but others may have seen it differently. I have tried to dot point as much as I can, and have added some questions that I asked (and some I didn’t !).

Day1

MC: Rob Gell opened the event .
Rob Gell thanked the sponsors/supporters: Project Link, Theiss, DLA Phillips Fox, Vibropile, Brifen, Coffey Rail, Leighton, Dial Before You Dig, GTA Consultants, Engineers Australia, and of course the State Govt - Dept. of Transport.

9am

Jim Betts - Secretary, Department of Transport Victoria

After explaining his disappointment at his title of ‘secretary' which made it sound as though he should just be ‘taking minutes’, Jim convinced us that he is really a very important person. He then proceeded to give a quick explanation of the VTP...

• Melbourne @ 5million and the Victorian Transport Plan were produced together and will be updated every 3-4 years to adjust figures ie. population growth, etc.
• would like to work with industry to spread the freight task
• Into the future 2030 - more freight 'immune to economic issues’
• Vision for a 24hr operation, mass transit orbital system, significant expansion in port rail as per Eddington Report.
• 'We're planning for Hastings at the moment'
• Mentioned the 'Freight Futures' document (more on that later)
• Channel Deepening (plug for)

It was then opened up to the floor for questions. Rob Gell asked about four questions on interstate rail, emissions reduction and fuel efficiency.
(I didn’t hear a substantial answer, other than 'we're working on it' or words to that effect.)

Tim Holding as Minister for Finance, Victoria

• restated that the State Budget saw an $8b investment in 09/10 infrastructure for transport, schools, etc..
• Victoria the best place in the country, best workers... Wants to be the 'best placed in the country' - jobs jobs jobs... in transport - freight & logistics.
• VTP is the plan, the vision, the context to tell the community where to go with infrastructure projects...
• Sustainability is at the heart of this plan…sustainability…sustainability..
• mentioned Peninsula Link, Epping Line (rail upgrade), Lynbrook (road)

Question Time:

Catherine Manning Southern Victorian Community Action Group (SVCAG): Minister, I notice you say 'sustainable and sustainability' a lot, what is your definition of sustainable when it comes to this Transport Plan? How can more and more growth, less local manufacturing, a massive increase in freight imports, more port development i.e. Hastings, and the associated truck movements, be anything but unsustainable?

Tim Holding: ‘freight needs the best possible infrastructure to be sustainable’, etc., etc. Said something to the effect that now we all expect higher quality living, we have to develop Hastings so we can provide it. (Incredibly, he then went on for another ten minutes without answering my question….)

Halvard Dalheim - Director, State Strategy, Planning Policy Branch

1. Green Spaces. Spoke about Melb @5million, 1.8 additional people by 2036. 600,000 dwellings in the next 20 years. How are we placed to deal with growth? Govt response was to release its 'transport policies'.
2. Challenges - Shaping Victoria, linking regional Victoria, Sustainable Growth, unblocking congestion, responding to climate change.
3. Unique Collaboration - benefits/new approaches/relationships/new opportunities - VicRoads/DOI (now DOT)/DSE. Urban Growth Boundaries - new issues raised and discussed...loves collaboration...(group hug with DSE/VicRoads/DOT)
4. Managing Melbourne's Growth
5. Scale of Growth .. (up, up and up..). How do we accommodate this growth?

6. Components of Growth - international migration levels never seen before...address future labour force. Long term drivers - migration. Health infrastructure needed - maternity wards.

7. Trends of Growth Maps - bridge the Yarra/Maribyrnong
8. Affordability and Growth - affordable living, housing, etc.
9. Shaping Melbourne's Growth - The growth equation: 316,000 established areas. 284,000 growth areas. 134,000 new growth areas. Shift new growth areas North and West. Expand growth areas and high density living in Melbourne.
10. Urban Form and Growth. Block sizes.
11. Accessible Jobs. Can't keep building roads and tunnels to handle our transport issues. So now we have 'land use and transport planning' so we can influence potential behavior patterns.
12. Disadvantaged with Jobs
13. Mode of Travel and Jobs - cars cars cars.
14. Proximity of Jobs
15. A Sustainable City Form. 'Polycentric' Multiple major centres - jobs close to home. Box Hill, Broadmeadows,Dandenong, Footscray, Frankston, Ringwood.
16. Inner Core - housing.
17. Tram Network
18. Conversions - housing
19. New Opportunities
20. Infill - across metro area
21. Residential Initiatives - lot densities. 'Local intelligence' looking at City of Moreland.
22. Melbourne's Newest Sustainable Communities - rail links, smartbus, Northern Suburbs.
23. Delivery - 'Transport plan.....shaping Victoria....jobs...jobs...jobs.'

Ray Kinnear - Dep Director Strategic Policy and Planning, Public Transport Division

• Growth rate exceeding current growth forecasts across all models
• More people on public transport: Why?Fuel costs, Global Financial Crisis, 20% environmental concerns
• Operating railway - creating a metro
• Local Bus Networks
• Offer early bird schemes to encourage travel before peak.
• Rail infrastructure projects underway...New track Laverton, Clifton Hill Rail Project..etc...$18b over next 2 years
• $10b sought from Building Aust Fund
• Regional Rail Link - Western part of Melb - sharing tracks/bottlenecks. Build new line west of Werribee on Geelong Line. Able to run v-line trains - no longer on suburban line.
• Build a second tunnel- Dynon area across to Parkville-Domain.
• South East capacity problem. Metro tunnel to Caulfield - all lines independent.
• Waiting for Govt Funding
• 70 new trains 50 new trams, maintenance facilities, light rail, more stops.

Question from Cameron of Coffee Projects: How long do you anticipate that growth to continue?
Answer from Ray Kinnear: planning on continuing at 8%p.a.

Jonathon Metcalfe - Exec Chair Connex

• challenging times
• Pollution 'we've talked about that'
• PPP's - more from the VTP about what's being delivered....
• more PR pitch about keeping customers happy and 'managing dissatisfaction'.
Question: What about level crossings?
Answer from JM: Where there's a business case.

(mass exodus - about 15 people left the auditorium at this point)....

Question unposed: When you say ‘pollution – we’ve talked about that’, when exactly did we talk about it? I’ve been awake the whole time…did I miss something?
Question unposed: Shouldn’t we refer to climate change as a problem, not a ‘challenge’? I know it’s very ‘Chopra-esque’ to say ‘challenge’, but doesn’t that make it sound like a fun run or math’s quiz, not the serious environmental issue that it is? It may be challenging to find solutions, but if we’re to be really honest, wouldn’t you say that climate change is really a big ‘issue’ or ‘problem

Brad Vann - Partner, Clayton UTZ

• Cost $60b to replace all of Victoria's level crossings - how to deal with this in Global Financial Crisis?
• Impact of credit crunch - lack of liquidity - banks retreating from long tenure and complex lending
• Cost of funding PPP's - as liquidity in markets decreases, lending margins increase....
• Feast or Famine: sales pitch for PPP's - alternatives: Govt underwrite financing bids (potential conflict of interest) - unsyndicated portions of debt taken up by govt entity until full syndication possible - shorter concession periods - shorter term financing.
• Market disruption risk
• Govt takes back some risk - ie. Hospital infrastructure project - decrease payments from the private sector if not bringing in the $$$.
• Unbundle the project
• Peninsula Link 'economic infrastructure' - No toll, therefore needs $$$. then Govt repay private sector. Govt looking at this way.
• Super Funds - Institutional Funds. Govt guarantee to lift the quality of the project and attract investment thru super funds etc. In turn, super and industry funds invest to keep their members in work.
• Regulatory changes - at the moment there is better returns for people to invest overseas.
• Develop by Govt then sell to private sector [Comment by editor: This is privatization in advance]
• Ask Industry Fund Managers, if we meet operational parameters of the project, will you agree to support it?
At this point just before lunch, the MD of Theiss got up and said 'we need accelerated spend up on transport infrastructure'. However, I didn’t notice anyone jump up and wave their wallet around.

Lunch: Met a few of interesting people. Am beginning to think I'm not going so mad after all. Some of these people do seem to get it too, and aren't as excited about all aspects of the VTP as I thought they would be.... Almost managed to attract a few new members (LOL).

Panel ‘Discussion’

Darren Bilsborough – Director of Sustainability, Parsons Brinckerhoff
Rob Turk – Associate, ARUP
Sean Murphy – GM Infrastructure & Environment, Worley Parsons
Glenn Hedges – Environmental Manager/Project Services, Thiess

Refreshingly, Darren Bilsborough spoke of the ‘elephant in the room – climate change’
• the VTP failed to adequately address climate change, health impacts, peak oil or our aging population.

Rob Turk

• minimising environmental impacts by collecting run off from freeways (used Frankston Bypass as an example) to provide solutions to other issues ie. Water.
• offset planting, ‘integrated resource management’, using road corridors as IT corridors (i.e. Broadband network infr.) and ‘smart energy zones’.
• the formation of the ‘Australian Green Infrastructure Council’, formed in 2007 by various industry reps, applying for state govt funding to try to create a ‘green star’ national rating scheme for business/developers.

Lots of talk about ‘fast tracking’

• geopolymer concrete / fly ash – being used as a better alternative to concrete. 80% less emissions.
• Waste vegetable matter for ‘sandwich panels’ – reinforced skins.
• Glass work – discharge from desalination plants to replace timbers, beams, concrete, etc.

Glenn Hedges repeated much of what had already been said, plus
• A ‘promo’ for Theiss providing indigenous communities with training & jobs to build a construction workforce
• More about the Green Inf. Council and Theiss’ efforts to replace lightweight truck bodies instead of stainless steel. Auto timing switches on mobile lighting banks, and more use of diesel

Questions for panel:

Rob Gell asked: Why geopolymer concrete wasn’t used for the construction of citilink and eastlink when the government had been consulted extensively on its benefits?
Answer:…..don’t know.

Questions from Catherine Manning: What payoff will there be for developers fastracking development to seek endorsement from Aust Green Inf Council, and will it have any real effect?
Answer: No real effect as yet, but it will be a ‘feel good’ exercise. There will be no legally binding contracts

Question from Catherine Manning: Doesn’t this just provide a vehicle for developers to appear green without being green when there are no real ‘green’ guidelines for development (apart from what comes out of the EES – EPBC Act). Where we have Work Cover and legal guidelines for other things, why aren’t there laws for developers to abide by when it comes to environmental/health impacts, etc.?
Answer: inadequate policy.

Question unposed: Do you think the Global Financial Crisis is being used as justification to fast track development so that even less community consultation can be justified?

Dr Lewis Gomes and Peter Zahnleiter (Brisbane Roads and Tunnel Experience)

• Spoke of the project delivery (if you really want me to document this, let me know, but it was about as exciting to me as watching grass grow).
• Their airport link averaged $56million per kilometer.

Peter Bentley – CEO Connect East

We then heard yet another promotion and back patting exercise about Eastlink. $3.8b for 39klm of toll way. Heard about Mullum Mullum Valley, the untolled Ringwood and Dandenong Bypasses, 88 bridges, 17 interchanges and 2 tunnels.

• 270,000 trips during the toll free period
• 135,000 once tolls introduced.
• Community consultation…’no one can ever say there was a lack of dialogue on this project’. Local community forum settled community matters
• Thanks to EPA ‘s communication between groups, there were ‘no public appeals when Connect East got works approval for the tunnel/ventilation project.
• 60 wetlands established / 3.5million shrubs and trees planted

Wrap up of day 1: So much of today sounded like repetitious, back patting, spin. There was nothing learned that wasn’t already in the VTP book. I got the sense by the end of the day that many of us hoped that tomorrow would provide far more substance, and we looked forward to ‘doing business’ and having that ‘high level debate’……

Media presence

*I contacted the conference organisers beforehand to enquire about media access to the event. I was told there was none. However, Jason Dowling from The Age was there on the first day. On Day 2 Jillian Verhardt from Radio Port Phillip was permitted to attend (I didn’t see any other media at all).

DAY 2.

Good morning Rob.

The Hon. Tim Pallas, Minister for Roads and Ports, Victoria, Steve Bracks Advisor 1999.

• The VTP will connect communities, build economies..etc…enhance livability, enhance amenity….etc…etc..

Apparently famous for his PowerPoint prowess, Mr Pallas lived up to his reputation and provided a lovely slide show….

10 Challenges facing infrastructure.

1. Congestion: $20.4b p.a. cost of congestion by 2020
($2.6b p.a. cost of congestion now)
‘Victoria is Australia’s Freight and Logistics hub’ – more talk about VTP Projects.

2. Port Capacity: 2035 - 8million containers annually.

Expand Swanston Dock – berth extensions
Webb dock for container handling
Transport plan for Hastings
Relocate market
Move Sth Dynon Rail terminal to Donnybrook
75% of channel deepening done – physical works due to be completed by
end of August.

3. Transport Linkages: Seymour Wodonga – Standard Guage Rail
4. Road Toll: duplicated roads safer than unduplicated
5. Freight Mode Share: more freight onto rail

Retain status as manufacturing state
90% of freight travels on road
Rail freight subsidies/freight access charges to encourage larger off-peak
use of port.

6. Intermodal Capacity: Container volumes not yet at a stage where rail is viable.
Until then encourage larger road transport to get freight around.
30m / 28m b-doubles and b-triples: tried and proven.
‘the public are accepting of b-doubles sharing the road’

7. Airport Capacity: Melbourne Airport Strategy

See Draft Airport Master plan 2008

8.

Infrastructure Funding: imbalance – requirement of state to raise revenue, failure of states to deliver. Money taken from road fines/tolls etc. goes back in to building/infrastructure.

Availability of PPP’s – i.e. Peninsula Link

9. Residential Amenity: Freight Futures

Truck action plan: new off ramps Westgate Fwy at Hyde St will remove 1.2 million trucks a year. Sunshine/Dempster/Paramount Rd – trucks will divert around Seddon using tunnels and new routes.

10. Port of Hastings: Bolte’s vision – lots of talk about ‘vision’

Question: Jason Dowling (Age News) asked about the funding of the Peninsula Link, state gov. has allocated $350m but nothing in the Fed. Budget.
Answer: Tim Pallas said he was confident they would receive the Fed. funding and said it was not unusual for items to be funded after any given main budget.

Question: 30mt. super B trucks, are they suitable for our roads?
Answer: Length is an issue, so they will only be trialed on certain routes, monitored by gps system to ensure they stick to nominated roads. See map.

Question: Catherine Manning – Considering all roads in the VTP lead to Hastings, is it not a bit dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket prior to any environmental assessment or EES? There are other ports around Victoria that could service our needs. What is ‘Plan B’ if Hastings proves to be an unviable location for major port development?

Answer:Tim Pallas: There is no plan B. Hastings is it. The EES just tells us what we need to watch out for, not whether or not we can do something. Minister Pallas assured the audience they would secure the necessary environmental approvals/considerations. Geelong has limitations. The EES is not a yes or no process. Hastings will happen.

Justin Madden – Minister for Planning

Again spoke of VTP and Melb @ 5million. Spoke about:
• Fast tracked approvals for infrastructure developments / collaboration
• Housing – growth growth growth….
• 325,000 will live in provincial areas by 2026
• Something about extra help for councils to measure households within their municipalities
• Online planning systems / ‘modernising’ planning and environment act
• Finally, we need to consult communities

Questions:

A man from Moonee Ponds: Why hasn’t growth been considered around Geelong etc.,…?
Answer: Again, hard to decipher, but something about ‘social issues as population reaches 3+million’, and ‘hamlets, villages and hinterland…’

Question: Jason Dowling of The Age asked if the Minister would sack his staffer after recent revelations re Brimbank Council.
Answer: No
Jason them commented cities over 3M seem to consistently present increased crime and other social problems.
Further reply from Minister, that our City is Attractive, especially housing as it is cheaper than Sydney. House and land packages here are around $60k less.

When does the population growth & infrastructure expansion come to an end?

Q. Catherine Manning: Considering your PowerPoint showed massive growth on Melbourne’s outskirts, are you concerned about the impact of all this growth on our food bowl, particularly the Koo Wee Rup Swamp/Gippsland regions? When does the growth come to an end?
A. (the following is a summary of what I understood of his lengthy response):
The south/east is almost at capacity and they are planning to move more people out to the West where there are larger tracts of land to be built upon (I then asked ‘so why develop Hastings???’ to which he said ‘Minister of Ports answered that’ – oh did he??? Well, just because it was ‘Bolte’s dream’ isn’t a good enough answer to me!). He said the rezoning of the 6 areas identified on the far edges would be done so in an environmentally sensitive manner. The North and West were definitely the only places to develop. He then went on to say that he welcomed my questions and was assuming my next would be about the EES process after Minister Pallas’ comments (well, actually I was planning on letting him off the hook on that one as I thought I might be removed from the gallery if I asked another question!!!) He spoke about the EES as something the community feels contains a ‘do nothing’ option. He said they (govt.) were more sophisticated now and complexities have to be managed. However, he did mention that although it ‘sounds like a done deal’ (my words), he would still have to seek federal approvals (EPBC Act).

Terry Garwood – Exec Director, Freight Logistics and Marine, DOT, Victoria

• More talk about more people, more freight, more, more, more. Planning, building managing freight network.
• Victoria is home to most efficient element of road industry: B Doubles – larger b-doubles under consideration to be trialed on certain roads.
• Freight task to double from now to 2030 ‘efficiency/capacity/sustainability
• Private sector moves freight on shared networks: trucks/cars, air freight/passenger, recreational boating/shipping.
• Government owns ports ( the ones in the VTP)
• ‘Planning and protecting’, ‘building and maintaining’, ‘managing and regulating’….( lots of buzzwords!)
• National rail that bypasses all major cities (now you’re talkin’!)
• International terminal at fresh market
• Truck Action Plan: building the network, freight charge during the day – encourage night road use
• Port of Melbourne’s charter to change to expand its role outside the port gate, giving them more power beyond the fence line of their current site.
• New policy document: Port Futures – tweaking the PLUTS
• This document will take Hastings and the UGB’s into consideration.
• There are no plans to introduce b-triples onto our Victorian road network, just longer b-doubles.

Question: Would Rail-Share suffer with the introduction of larger trucks?
Answer: Yes. Intra rail is port related. Interstate Rail non port related. National by passes all Capitol Cities. eg. Donnybrook Terminal. Metro rail freight is currently zero.

Question: Rob Gell: were green-house gas emissions part of the over all decision making process, especially trucks?
Answer: Aviation was quoted as 1.5% emissions, shipping 1.5% emissions. (Maybe he meant shipping and Transport, but that needs to be looked at.)

Rob said if Darwin was the Sea/Container terminal, how about train to the rest of the nation?
Further A. Melb. to Sydney Rail attracts barely 5% all freight movements. Funds are likely to be directed to increase rail and they are in close contact with Fed. Gov.

Question Unposed: Have the social impacts been considered or ‘costed in’ of the hundreds and thousands of ‘Daddies’ out there encouraged to drive their trucks only at night?

Stephen Bradford – CEO, Port of Melbourne Corporation

After a few figures relating to the Global Financial Crisis’s impact on freight movements, Stephen Bradford got stuck right in to the community for daring to suggest that things might not go so well to plan as expected. Here’s a rundown:

TEU’s (containers) Motor Vehicles
Dec. down 5.2% down 28.7%
Jan down 16% down 33.8%
Feb down 7.6% down 35.9%
Mar down 7.6% down 38.7%

TEU’s down 1.5% to Mar 09
Cars down 15.9% to Mar 09
Dry Bulk down 1.8% to Mar09

Long Beach down 30%
Seattle down 24%
Tacoma down 15%
Oakland down 16%
Los Angeles down 17%

(anyone wanna buy a transport plan???)

• 8 million TEU by 2035
• 60% container vessels are draught constrained, need ‘a hole in the sand’ – dredging.
• $12million EES
• Headlines cut and pasted on PowerPoint of ‘Negative Headlines’

He then went on to show news footage of ‘community reaction’, including the ‘Battle Zone’ story with Jo Hall, a Blue Wedges Rally, protesters and the exclusion zone, Federal Court story….etc..

• EES – after 130 recommendations from initial panel, rebuilt the team, performed the highest environmental studies, project liaison group, ‘subsequently we then had the SEES peer review by experts not on the original panel as selected by the state government’.
• Successfully dredged with no environmental impacts
• On schedule and within budget
• Port corporation took the option to be vigilant and open
• EMP is very rigorous

Followed by the ‘Big Tick’ video of the Queen of the Netherlands
• Took on an advertising campaign
• Showed the media ad
• More justification of media campaign
• Looking at Hastings and other ports
• By the way, loves the little penguins – lots of monitoring of the little cuties.

Question: What benefit to the environmental outcome of spending the $120M second/further EES re Bay Dredging.
Answer: He said it was worth it, they learned more about sea-grasses, penguins and turbidity. He also commented that the second 'team' convened to carry out the 'further' EES were almost an entirely new crew.

Question: CEO RACV Negus asked about increased container volumes on roads.
Answer: Negus was directed to the presentation by the previous speaker and he had answered all that. Negus only attended for the Bradford presentation and left the conference shortly after.

Question: Was Mr. Bradford concerned about increased severity of storms, King Tides etc. adding to an increase water level in the bay.
Answer: No.

Question unposed: When you say the port corporation ‘took the option’ to be vigilant and open, what was the other ‘option’?

The Hon. Jacinta Allen, Minister for Regional and Rural Development

More of what seemed like a ‘press release’ from the VTP.

Question Jillian Verhardt (Radio 3RPP): Despite a recent massive upgrade there is great congestion at times at the Tulla/Calder merge. Bendigo and towns such as Gisborne had been touted as ‘commuter satellites’ for those seeking affordable regional housing yet wishing to remain working in Metro yet get home at a reasonable hour. Asked about the Melbourne City to Tullamarine light rail in terms of alleviating serious congestion, and stated that the airport had been doubled in capacity around 5 years ago, and the management were out there last year stating another doubling would be required to keep up with increased aviation activity.

Answer: Dismissed the question as it was in her opinion a metro issue, yet the highway, Calder and Tullamarine Freeway are heavily used already. As other road issues around the freeways are ‘addressed’, it is assumed that will ease congestion.

Panel ‘Discussion’

Tim Ryan – GM, ARTC
Helen Newell – Director, Corporate Dev. & Government Relations, Asciano
Andy McNicol – Coffee Rail

Tim Ryan

• Nth/Sth rail corridor: Melb/Bris/Syd – 16m gross tonnes to 28/35m 2015
• East/West: Melb/Syd/Perth – 80% market share - focus to sustain operation – not much growth in it.
• Include customers, deliver what the market wants, location of terminals to take long trains, commercial opportunities in regional areas.
• Trucks have access to good road networks, makes it difficult to compete for $$$ for rail infrastructure.
• 1.8klm trains Syd/WA 1.5klm trains Bris

Helen Newell

• Engage with stakeholders
• Freight transport through inner urban areas an issue
• Need proper debate to find the best place for development (she’s speaking my language!) Hastings provides ‘many challenges’.
• Containers from Tasmania
• Asciano prefer development out west (i.e. Geelong).
• National freight rail system only way to justify freight on rail.
• Rail freight under 500klm cannot compete with trucks.
• Asciano position: move freight to west out of Dynan precinct to allow double stacking of Rail

Andy McNicol

• Literally arrived in Melbourne from Scotland 4 days ago.
• Was impressed by the ministers and audience being so embracing of the VTP and mentioned that there was much more ‘debate’ about such matters overseas.

Questions/Discussion:

Catherine Manning: Andy, you say that you are impressed that the Ministers and audience at this conference seem to be ‘embracing’ of the VTP. That may be because this is a ‘target audience’. The exorbitant cost of a ticket to this event prevents many community groups from attending (I am here representing a number of groups across Victoria). Further, when Tim Pallas said earlier that ‘the community had accepted b-doubles on the roads’, I beg to disagree. I don’t believe we’ve ‘accepted them’ at all, what choice did we have? They just arrived, and I can tell you that amongst the greater community there is huge support for a National Rail System that would reduce the number of trucks on the road, removes the parochialism and assesses the best place for port development.

To Helen Newell, if the cost to society of health impacts and safety issues were assessed and added to the cost of trucking freight, would that not bring the margin closer and make rail more competitive?

Helen Newell's response was that we’d be pleased to hear that the Federal Government are looking at this very issue and are about to release a document that she couldn’t elaborate on as yet, but that we would find it very encouraging. She went on to say that health issues and safety of trucks is being considered - Asciano stated it would help if trains were priced more economically, using all the columns. When they did their study, using all aspects, including safety, congestion etc. it produced a compelling argument showing trains can reduce road stressors currently present around centres.

(With this in mind, I wonder if we should hold off on the whole VTP until we can ‘collaborate’ with everyone for the best possible outcome for our freight needs! So far, the budget looks like it has done that for us, and I didn’t see anyone pulling dollar bills out of their pockets at this conference….)

More q & a for the panel:

Q. Freight via large trucks (all) around Port of Melbourne has a curfew to avoid commuter peak times and maybe residential considerations.

Is Infrastructure worth the cost to solve? Sydney has 4 hr curfew morning and evening re rail movements (noise and road closure/s?) where trucks are not limited there making it hard for rail to compete.

A. Asciano talked about doubling the track to Wodonga/Albury and said the Melb. to Bris. rail system was a major impediment.
Sydney was a rail bottleneck, in terms of getting freight through, especially sharing tracks with commuters as above.

Q. Wyndham Planner? The West is preferred location for rail terminal in a highly built up area.

A. The North-South and East - West must be connectable. The Sunshine triangle is part of this. North or West, both need corridors as a location. Donnybrook is 'looking good'.

Q Rail Lubrication from an expert in reducing friction, wear and tear etc. Apparently Aust. is using ineffective product and this adds to maintenance both trains and tracks.

A. This Q was dismissed immediately by the 3rd member of the 'panel', he explained he had heard of superior products but was sticking with existing suppliers and technology.

Q. Regional Hubs, who might be the operators? Terminals, rail, have their own economies of scale.

A. Financially, Rail always struggles. Multiple users is an answer and other business is required other than simply 'lifting' containers.
Single box rail transport does not pay.

Footnote - US does not allow double B's. Their policy is if the freight is that big, it must go by rail.

Parsons Brinkerhoff

• Freight and Congestion have risen sharply. Though, traffic volumes appear to have leveled off. Public Transport is steady and has experienced strong growth. Of the $38B, how best to use.

• Plan beyond today’s needs, we are simply catching up with a back-log not actually creating future capacity. Look at least 30yrs ahead.

• Current government plans will barely provide for the next 10 yrs.

• EIS is the opportunity for Community to improve the environment.

• Land use is predicator for location of transport.

• The presenter used Boston as the model to demonstrate how transport planning can work, for both commuters and road users.

• Development on roads are best, in their opinion, near major intersections.

Over and out.

Catherine Manning
Southern Victoria Community Action Group Inc.
P.O. Box 707,
Pakenham 3810
www.svcag.org
svcag[AT]ozemail.com.au

This document is republished to give background dating from 2003 as the Victorian government began to take control away from citizens and locals over water, land and government, and to assume more and more control, in public-private associations. It was the beginning of overt attempts to promote private profit from induced scarcity. The induced scarcity was created by the government policy to grow Victoria's population and economic activities. At the time few Victorians had the faintest idea of what was going on. I was one of few environmentalists to question the authority of the government's actions.

Wimmera Mallee Water Piping Scheme and PipeRight Inc

(Originally published at home.vicnet.net.au/~aespop/spavicnews.htm in August 2003.)

(Editor's Update

Note that the environmental allocation of 1000 megalitres of water to the affected farmers (mentioned in this 2003 article below) has still not been delivered.)

Water privatisation and economic rationalism: impact on democracy and environmental values

The privatisation of water and economic rationalist schemes that alienate water from the land and aim for totally managed total redistribution for 'economic' objectives are disturbing. I am not convinced that efficiency is a value which can be prioritised over all other human values, nor am I convinced that this is the value that is really driving privatisation. Clearly water trading is being exploited by the rich for speculative purposes; prices are inflating from the same population and consumer growth push which drives up land prices.

SPA Vic recently responded [President and Vice President Sheila Newman and Jill Quirk in 2003] to an invitation by Culgoa members Audrey Mather and Glen Marshall to investigate the concerns about water allocations of a group of drylands farmers in Birchip. The farmers had formed a group called PipeRight to counter a proposal by Wimmera Mallee Water to enclose and control every drop of water in the area at what seemed to be substantial benefit to irrigators and little or no benefit but great cost, to Wimmera Mallee farmers, who would also be required to fill in 22,000 farm damns. The proposal seems largely driven by these past four years of drought, when the supply of water has been completely interrupted there for the first time in 96 years, according to PipeRight. Jill and myself feel that many of the farmers concerns are valid and I have included below information from PipeRight.

The Wimmera Mallee is where the famous stump jump plow and various inventions for pulling out mallee roots came from. Subsequently the results of these 'miracles' of human ingenuity became infamously associated with massive soil loss. This part of the Wimmera Mallee has been watered a century by over 17,000 km of open earthen channels dug by man with horse. Few Australians know of this outback wonder, although it is said to be the largest gravity fed system in the world. On a map the channels look like a complex uniformly spaced geometric maze, but one that covers 3 million hectares and occupies approximately 10 % of Victoria. The earthen channels provide water to 14 recreational and environmental lakes, 22,000 farm dams and 51 towns. The system runs South to North from the Grampians to the Murray River. For 2 to 4 months of the year it receives water released from twelve storage areas, of which the largest are the Grampians and Rocklands. The overflow goes to the Glenelg River. The water is used only for stock, domestic and environmental purposes meaning for trees and habitat that are not directly benefiting agriculture, including land for wildlife and land which has social value and also supports native vegetation and wildlife, for instance around recreational lakes.

Livestock form up to 34% of Southern Mallee mixed farming. When there is little water there are few stock. The bulk of farming is broad acre cropping, entirely reliant on rainfall, which is traditionally described as good for up to 6 years in ten depending on proximity to the desert. If it does not rain no crops are grown. High protein wheat for bread and high quality wine are two crops special to the area. None of the PipeRight farmers are feedlot farmers.

The descendents of the original selection farmers, who learned to farm this near desert land, surviving the government land clearing policies which led to so much damage, form a close knit community of highly skilled professional farmers with major investment in the land. Farms average 9000 hectares. They are like giant factories with many moving parts. Fuel comes by the tanker and machines cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. But business and efficiency are not the whole story, of course. People remain on these farms because they also value the lifestyle. The lifestyle of farming communities depends greatly on open water on farm and in the community and on the natural amenity where plant and fauna have adapted to man made water distribution and have been preserved and enhanced in many places.

Many PipeRight farmer-activists have longstanding involvement in Land for Wildlife and Land Care. Much remnant mallee and black box dominating this arid red sandy country would rely on seepage or dedicated water from the man made system to supplement rainfall. In turn the vegetation keeps the soil in place and supports numerous native birds, some remaining native animals, and the potential for more. Given the vast area of the channel system the habitat in place is probably quite extensive.

Wimmera Mallee Water wants to bypass the open channel system with water transported via 7000 km of small diameter pipes using coal fired electricity at financial, environmental and social costs far outweighing some purported benefits which are arguably meagre or even non-existent.

The scheme would deliver to 9,000 service points and 40 towns. Four main trunk pipelines would transmit water continually to existing urban storages. This would be redistributed to farm tanks, stock troughs and households.

The project claims it would provide near full supply in 93 years out of 100, however the farmers of PipeRight claim that the current system has supplied them for 96 years out of 100. Much of the new proposal appears to rest on arguments based on the past 4 years of drought. An additional argument is that climate change may further reduce rainfall, however the new proposal would give much of the water saved from seepage to irrigators at a lower price than the dryland farmers would pay. According to the 'Business Case' of Part 5 of the WMW proposal, the Glenelg and Wimmera rivers would only receive new environmental flow if the farmers agreed to foot about 40% of the cost for the whole scheme! This plan, led by Government and undisclosed members of a 'business case' group (whose names arguably should be made public before any decision is made) seems to be a case for extension and intensification of development, based on that ideological excuse for greed of doing 'more with less'. Commercial in confidence is no excuse when water is at stake; this is a community issue and discussion must be absolutely open.

My feeling is that water should not be decoupled from land and that regions should be assessed separately according to their long term viability on environmental, agricultural and social grounds. I would not support allocating MORE water to irrigation or to extending irrigation to more land on current evidence. This is partly due to my mistrust of powerful irrigation lobby members, individuals and corporate, my horror at water speculation and the dangers inherent in trading decoupled water, and my impression that economic arguments for preferring irrigation are based on short term market considerations, concern for Riverina votes, (Wimmera Mallee only has one vote), and pressure from a corporate sector with little or no concern for Australians' quality of life.

"PIPE RIGHT INC.

The piped system for the Wimmera Mallee Region will cover 2.3 million hectares to achieve water savings of 93,000 megalitres.

PIPE RIGHT INC SUPPORTS THE PIPED SYSTEM OF WATER MANAGEMENT FOR THE WIMMERA MALLEE REGION.

The cost of the system is $300 million. State Government $77 million, Federal Government $77 million. Approximately 2555 Farms: $117.3 million (including on farm costs); 23,750 Urban users: 15.9 million DRYLAND FARMERS ARE THE LARGEST SINGLE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SYSTEM.

PRESIDENT: K Barber Phone 54922426, Fax 54922786 helenbarber[AT]bigpond.com

Secretary: J Chivell Phone 53990528 Fax 53990539 Key areas of concern arising from the preliminary Wimmera Mallee Feasibility Study - June 2001 are:

1. ENVIRONMENT

Allocation of 83,000 ML of water savings mainly to the Wimmera and Glenelg Rivers . No allocation for farm dams, lakes and wetlands to sustain the flora and fauna away from river system . Inadequate flood management strategy when channels are filled in . No shire dams to provide habitat for birds and ground dwelling species and access for emergency water for fire fighting Pipe Right recommends a formal environmental survey of species in areas away from rivers

2. ON FARM IMPACT

The cost/benefit analysis of the Feasibility Study based on the Northern Mallee pipeline is not applicable to the Wimmera Mallee system . Benefits such as increased stocking rates, reduced cultivation time and increased production have limited benefits in our region .Improved water quality and security of supply will have varied benefits to customers. System must have the capacity to deliver water for present needs and future development

On Farm Infrastructure costs. Water to be delivered to farm boundary in 2" pipe . Farmer must have the facilities to store 3 days supply in peak periods . On farm costs for a property of 900 hectares is estimated at $46,800 or $52 hectare . Extra time and labour cost involved in checking troughs and tanks . Farmers should have the option of retaining a percentage of dams to help reduce infrastructure costs and maintain environmental, economic and social sustainability

. Irrigation

The proposed allocation to irrigators is 29,000 ML. Allocation to all other customers is 27,000 ML. Pipe Right recommends a

. Tariff Review

A tariff review is sought to reflect the difference in cost between domestic and commercial water Northern Mallee customers pay a hectare charge of $2,02 and $560 ML... If half ML water is used per 256 ha the cost of water is $1570 per annum.

Government make a one off payment of $1800 ML with no future service fee or ongoing maintenance cost.

. Safety

For fire purposes pipeline must be able to deliver water at 600 litres per minute . Pipeline is restricted to filling one tanker at a time . Who is responsible for paying for water for fire fighting purposes? . Who pays for large tanks for fire fighting purposes if they are necessary? . Shire dams have provided emergency water in the past. Shire dams could be important in the event of accidental contamination in the pipeline.

.Water Entitlement

Pipe Right seeks 2 entitlements: Farm entitlement attached to the title of the property not saleable but transferable between block of the same ownership. Commercial Entitlement tradeable on an annual basis

RECREATIONAL LAKES/SOCIAL AMMENITY

Allocation of 2000 ML is insufficient to maintain the lakes in the region (allocation only for 3 lakes) . Lakes contribute to the environmental, social, and economic well being of the community . Capacity of the system must be great enough to fill lakes from empty and keep them topped up. The cost of water and maintenance of the lakes should be shared by tax payers. Some of the $3000 ML of water savings should be retained in our region. Piped system must acknowledge that dryland areas need water for social, amenity, recreation, economic and environmental purposes

Pipe Right recommends All lakes with facilities to be filled

4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

.The piped system must have the capacity to support existing agriculture and commercial industries. The capacity and flexibility for future value adding enterprises and intensive agricultural industries. System must be able to deliver sufficient water to all farms across the region . Failure to deliver sufficient water could devalue farms. Small towns could suffer loss of income if there is no provision for recreational water. Angling contributes $75 million to the local economy. The cost of water will be the limiting factor for the development of new industries. Stock and domestic Water may need to be replaced by a Farm and Commercial Entitlement to reflect equity in costs

5. PROJECT COST

.Farmers will be expected to contribute over 40% of the cost of the system must have equitable sharing of costs and benefits."

Many thanks to Glen Marshall and Audrey Mather, who attended to our every need and organised meetings with very hospitable local farmers. Audrey, at whose home we stayed, is also a member of the CWA and Glen was educated as an agricultural scientist and taught much of his life, in Australia and in New Guinea, finally retiring to Culgoa town.

"The Wimmera River is one that does not empty into the sea; it is entirely landlocked and its water has been over-allocated for many years, i.e., demand exceeds supply. Those who have travelled through this area will have seen that the water is distributed in open channels. To me, it follows that any technical improvement which conserves water should see that water kept in the river and not used for any further expansion of demand. The costs given in this piece suggest to me that the economic cost will be too great for farmers to bear and the scheme will not get up on these grounds. The figures are very interesting for if a technical solution to the problems of our much larger river systems such as the Murray/Darling are to be based on piping rather than open channel distribution, the economic cost is going to be high indeed." Dr John Coulter, SPA National Vice President.

The Regional context - Related 2003 Report

If State Government plans to upgrade rail services between Melbourne and Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and the Latrobe Valley perceptibly improve those services, then towns along the rail lines are all likely to gain population, both transient and permanent.? Land prices would then rise in these areas.?

Victorian government projections for regional areas probably greatly underestimate the rate of growth in the respective populations.

Projections from the Department of Infrastructure (DOI) [Now Department of Sustainability -ed.] and other planning bodies tend to link prosperity to population growth, because they measure everything with GDP, which is merely a measure of activity involving financial transactions. These transactions could be increasing national debt, as indeed are a lot of property and infrastructure projects, but they count as positive. At a per capita level we are dividing an increasing number of people into a type of economy that does not require much labor and which is selling low cost commodities on the world market.? Population growth in this kind of economy is not such good news except for those who own property and utilities which increase price with increased demand. It is in fact these people who are driving population growth in Australia.

Property development and construction directly benefit from population growth. The industries upstream from property are the suppliers of raw materials for building, such as mining and forestry, and the suppliers of processed building materials. The major downstream industries are the finance industries, such as banks and building societies, which rely on mortgages as a major source of profitable income and to finance other business investments. State Governments also earn billions each year through collection of stamp duties on property sales. Solicitors earn money from conveyancing and real estate agents, of course, rely on sales and rentals. The individuals and companies who stand to gain the most are possibly the big developer-building companies that own large land banks which they sell out in parcels of land to home buyers when demand is high. Many of these developers also have housing finance companies. Some build shopping centres and roads as well as houses. But speculation is big business and transnational corporations, like insurance companies, also invest in water, property markets and agriculture. The print media relies heavily on real-estate ads for income. The Murdoch and the Fairfax press both have property dot coms which market Australian real estate to buyers and investors all over the world.

Some organisations representing these major interests are the Business Council of Australia, the Australian Population Institute (Apop), the Housing Institute of Australia (HIA), the Urban Development Institute of Australia and the Real Estate Institute of Australia.

For most of the rest of us, rising land, water and energy costs contribute to inflation that is, they raise the cost of living. More population, especially in a deregulated industrial system, drives down wages. Since land is the basis of everything in our economies, rising land costs contribute not only to unaffordable housing, but they increase costs to business as well.

Home owners can sometimes capitalise on their assets by selling up and moving to cheaper outlying areas. Many may finish up in the large, medium and small regional cities and towns. Coastal and mountain areas are particularly attractive for people who are retiring and for whom the rising cost of living in the cities and the fall in superannuation value makes moving out good sense.

In the Victorian regions, population is generally less than the infrastructure provides for, since people have been leaving for decades. Here, the population growth which was bad news in the city, is probably good news for the country in a number of ways.

Although our commodity based economy has many drawbacks, regions that produce wood from plantations, such as those in the area around Bairnsdale, will have the added attraction of providing semi skilled and skilled jobs.

Parts of regional Victoria will experience population loss due to land degradation and pricing of water beyond a point where farming becomes profitable. The has already happened in Kerang, for instance. Some parts of Victoria, notably the Riverina for which population growth is predicted by DOI, may suffer population implosion if the Murray Darling River river system and the land it feeds degrades and industry flounders, as has been warned by numerous land and water ecologists in CSIRO and elsewhere.

Cost of food is likely to rise steeply along with the cost of water as competition between the demands of an increasing number of people and industrial concerns causes scarcity. Climate change also threatens to make dry areas dryer. The Hubbert Peak theory of petroleum production, widely subscribed to, predicts peak production of oil between 2006 and 2011, with a quite rapid decline in oil and gas supply after that.

What could this mean to the regions? Again, what is bad news generally for the cities is probably better news for the regions. If the cost of living rises due to competition for water and land, and if fuel becomes much less affordable, there would be a tendency to produce less and to rely on local markets. Life would be led in situ, with less travel and fewer organisations doing the same things.

Regional populations may be thrown back to judicious use of dryland farming in any areas which have managed to retain access to local catchment water, despite competition from corporate irrigators and water speculators. Caution inclines one to advocate maintenance of independent sources of water so that regions can maintain some self sufficiency if democracy further erodes and water is privatised. The cities will not have so many options, having covered their farmland with housing.

In the short term there are also what economists would term some positive indicators for regional areas. House prices could rise so that country people will have more chance of borrowing from banks. Currently city peoples' land assets are far superior items for negotiating finance. Recreational/health industries could have new population types to service and more customers with less mobility, due to age, reduced income and increased travel costs. Increased infrastructure demand in the short-term could lead to high demand for raw materials and to processing industries. New opportunities for jobs and business could arise from this demand and would attract a variety of new population types, including young people.

A regional town with a university able to attract international students, would be likely to attract both population and money and increase property values through rentals and sales. Current immigration policy encourages foreign students who take degrees in Australia to become permanent migrants, and this creates a heavy demand for rental and owner property. Universities currently vie to attract foreign students because they can charge them high fees and because of the flow on benefits to the property investment market. It would not be surprising to find that universities have made substantial property investments.

Feedback from a recent talk to YMCA regional managers was informative and confirmed that there were increasing trends of urban-rural migration, growing housing unaffordability in the regions and speculation by developers. For instance, in Phillip Island, where much of the population is social welfare dependent, I was told that land prices have recently quadrupled. Regional officers were indeed observing housing become progressively more unaffordable as speculators and people from the city moved in. Of great concern to regional officers everywhere was the shortage and cost of water and its effect on the ability to run swimming pools and recreational lakes.

In 2001 I made predictions about Australia's current predicament, at the end of a statistical appendix on population and energy for Australia and France (pdf 2.8M). Throughout my thesis I discussed these looming problems and their drivers. It seems appropriate to cite the short predictions from the appendix here, because Australian governments constantly pretend that no-one could see what was coming. The people who formed government from the 80s to now should be held formally responsible.

[Written in 2001]
"Australia's recent history is a strong indicator that population growth is likely to remain rapid or accelerate in the next half century. Between 1946 and 2001, Australia's population grew by 11,849,099 persons, or by 157.58%. From 1946 to 1974 it grew by 85.76%. From 1974 to 2001 it grew by 38.65%. Between the year of the French base projections, 1990 and 2001 Australia's population has grown by approximately 12.8% from 17,169,800 to 19,368,345 or an average of 1.6% per annum. Australia's growth, up to 1966 was affected by baby boom high fertility and high net migration. Although fertility declined rapidly after this, the high immigration continued. With increasing longevity this means that the population has continued to expand rapidly. We can assume that most of the Australian baby boomers will die between 2027 and 2051. If high immigration continues, however, the population will have continued to expand and will require more intense land-use, more infrastructure, and more technology to maintain its economy, even with similar per capita footprints. With exponentially expanding drylands salinity and other forms of desertification, plus massively degraded waterways, together with micro-climate changes brought about by local vegetation removal (without considering the possibility of macro-global climate changes) it is difficult to see how such a large population will survive without severe declines in quality of life, standard of living, health and longevity. As well as other bio-diversity die-off, the chances seem high for considerable human die-off due to the effect of desertification on the economy and environment. Petroleum based energy shortages are likely both to increase poverty and misery as cheap fuel becomes much less accessible to ordinary citizens. Pollution is likely to increase as coal and other lower grade fuels are substituted, since Australia has not invested in alternative energy sources. Poor design of built and transport infrastructure will add to the difficulty in reducing and satisfying energy demand for both personal and economic use."

On the other hand, under a different system:

"France's recent history is a strong indicator that population growth is unlikely to accelerate in the next half century. Between 1946 and 2001, France's population grew by 18,914,482 persons, or by 47.13 %. From 1946 to 1974 (28 years) it grew by 25.4%. From 1974 to 2001 (27 years) it grew by 17.32%. Between the year of the base population for these projections, 1990, and 2001 France's population has grown by 2,462,713 people or approximately 4.35%, or and average of 0.39% per annum from 56,577,000 in 1990 to 59,039,713. France's growth up to 1974 was affected by both the high fertility of the baby boom and high immigration. After 1974 the contribution of both these factors declined sharply. Increased longevity means that the population remains large, although its base is reducing. If we consider that the Baby Boom went from 1947 to about 1966, and assume longevity of between 80 and 85 years, then between 2027 and 2051 the baby boomer generation will die off. With no other changes this will leave the French population several millions smaller. Since France, like most Western European countries is under considerable environmental stress due to the intensity of land use required by its economy, a smaller population even with similar per capita footprints would lessen this stress and the long-term need for greater infrastructure and technology for the maintenance of the population and its economy. If, as seems likely, petroleum based fuels become rarer and more expensive, France is ahead of a lot of other countries, including Australia, in the spatial organisation, planning and technology for transport and other built infrastructure mediating economic and personal fuel needs. It currently has access to alternative fuel sources and technologies and potentially to others."