Trump's policies and the others'

With the prospect of another Trump presidency, it is essential that we belatedly analyze his winning strategy or, perhaps more relevantly, the reasons for his opponent's failure.  Far too often it has been assumed that Trump voters are all gun-toting rednecks but this is not the case, and could not anyway, explain the reason why nominally safe Democratic seats changed sides to give him his first win.    

In 2016 Hillary Clinton went into shock when she was defeated, as did Democratic supporters and the media, who had forecast her victory. And their surprise was shared by many Republicans, whose logical choice for nomination as Presidential candidate was ousted by an uncouth billionaire who, as well as insulting migrants, women, the justice system, and the military, had rejected conservatism (and now even democracy), the cornerstone of Republicanism.  

And therein lies the reason for Trump's victory. Trump won the nomination and then the election because voters in the US (and much of the world), disliked the economic policies that both parties had adopted.  Republican nominees, like John McCain and Mitt Romney, had embraced high immigration policies and free trade, and were rejected for these reasons.  It was an understandable approach, because the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, which had been supported by Presidents Regan, Bush, and Clinton, resulted in the loss of 700,000 jobs, created a trade deficit with Mexico, and the displacement of almost a million Mexican farm workers, many of whom then joined the stream of migrants trying to enter the United States. 

These neoliberal policies devastated US manufacturing industries because they could not compete with cheaper imports. Their closure had a flow-on effect in the coal and steel industries, which led to the formation of so-called Rust Belt states, in regions that had once supported thousands of well-paid local jobs.   

Trump's promises of action - to drain the swamp, (the US ranks 24th in world corruption rankings), build a wall, deport 11 million unauthorized immigrants, and tear up free trade agreements - resonated with these new poor, and even with migrants.  In the southern border states Latino voters not only support the wall construction but also the promise of the biggest-ever undocumented-migrant deportation in the country’s history, presumably greater than the two million deported under President Obama.  

For the many struggling Americans, including migrants, it is galling to see millions of dollars being spent on new migrants who have arrived illegally.  The resentment is bolstered by GOP rhetoric, which paints illegal migrants as gang members, sex traffickers, and terrorists, a claim that apparently deflects some of the blame for Republican failure to impose gun control measures.

Trump's crude and confrontational approach has impacted in other countries, making it difficult for any of their candidates to oppose immigration or free trade without being tarred with the same brush as Trump.   But the reality is that, despite Trump’s other criticisms of uncontrolled immigration, the US is highly dependent on the cheap - even slave -  labor, provided by migrant exploitation, including the construction of the Trump Tower, but this issue is rarely mentioned.  

Despite the bitter arguments over what has become a migrant crisis, the debate has focused on either deportation or settlement as a solution, while the cause of the migrants’ plight is rarely mentioned.   The uncomfortable truth is that the US policies are largely responsible for the economic trauma in other countries, which has driven the inhabitants into fleeing the country of their birth for a dubious future elsewhere.   Many South American nations were torn apart by drug barons who catered for the demand from the US, others suffered from military intervention, economic sanctions, or US support for right-wing dictators and nearly all countries lost important skilled people to the lure of a Green Card.          

Trump has now added inflation as an issue in his campaign. Inflation is a problem that will also gain support from voters. Like many other issues we face, inflation and income inequality are failures of economics that will likely be ignored by both political parties. Trump is widely portrayed in the media establishment as an apex threat, but the issues that put him ahead on polls were the drivers of the unrest in Europe, including Brexit, Marine Le Pen’s ascendency in France, and Italy's Giorgia Melone, along with growing opposition to accepting migrants in all nations.   The really frightening part of this unfolding disaster is not just Trump's rise, but the failure of politicians in almost all nations, including Australia, to recognize these issues.